This question tracks my $500 even odds bet with Liron Shapira, host of Doom Debates: https://x.com/William_Kiely/status/2047345502006513970

$500 bet: In Liron's Doom Debates' episode with Emad Mostaque, they both agreed that US unemployment will probably be at least 2% higher in two years than it is today (i.e. 6.4%+ in April 2028). I offered to bet against and Liron agreed at $500:$500 stakes.

If the US total unemployment rate in April 2028 is 6.4% or higher, I will pay Liron $500 (or, if he prefers, donate $500 to Doom Debates or a charity of his choice). On the other hand, if the US total unemployment rate in April 2028 is less than 6.4%, Liron will owe me $500.

As of March 2026, the unemployment rate is 4.3%: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm