The UNRATE data series measures the United States unemployment rate. This figure is defined as the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed, with the labor force consisting of individuals who are 16 years of age or older, residing in one of the 50 states or the District of Columbia, and are not living in institutions (e.g., correctional or mental facilities, homes for the elderly), nor are on active duty in the Armed Forces. This rate corresponds to the U-3 measure of labor underutilization, indicating the proportion of the civilian labor force that has been unemployed for 15 weeks or longer.
This data is sourced from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of their 'Employment Situation' release, which draws from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)'. The data is seasonally adjusted and updated on a monthly basis.
Question Specifications:
Will the latest value of the UNRATE data series on this page on the FRED website (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2027?
Any revisions of the UNRATE value after the initial report will not be considered for the resolution of this question.
I was able to use the "edit graph" feature to shift the time series by 4.5 down:
So overall it seems that being below the threshold is kinda rare (the stretches I see are 1950-1953, 1955-1957, 1965 - 1970, 1998 - 2001, 2017 - 2020, 2021 - present). This roughly accounts for 3 + 2 + 5 + 3 + 3 + 2 = 18 of the 75 years for which the data is present. Thus I think that the likelihood of being above the threshold in 2027 (who knows what 2027 will be like economically?) is something like 1 - 18/75 = 76%.