Will unemployment increase to greater than 25% at any point between now and 2031?
22
1kṀ25462031
25%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Unemployment measure must come from a reputable source, and is defined by being total unemployed and looking for work/total number of residents in the labor force. Note, it is US unemployment I am referring to.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
What kind of event would need to occur for unemployment >25%? Even during the Great Depression unemployment did not reach this level:
Related questions
Related questions
Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?
43% chance
Will US unemployment be 25% or more before 2030?
12% chance
Will there be >15% unemployment at any time prior to January 1st 2026?
6% chance
Will US unemployment be 20% or more before 2030?
13% chance
Will world unemployment reach 20% at any time before 2030?
23% chance
Will US unemployment be 15% or more before 2030?
13% chance
Will US unemployment be 10% or more before 2030?
23% chance
Will the US unemployment rate exceed 10% again before 2030?
25% chance
Will unemployment rate in the US reach 10% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?
27% chance
If the US unemployment reaches 20% will it reach 80% within 2 years? (AI take-off)
10% chance