
Will unemployment increase to greater than 25% at any point between now and 2031?
23
1kṀ26712031
23%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Unemployment measure must come from a reputable source, and is defined by being total unemployed and looking for work/total number of residents in the labor force. Note, it is US unemployment I am referring to.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
What kind of event would need to occur for unemployment >25%? Even during the Great Depression unemployment did not reach this level:
People are also trading
Related questions
What will the unemployment rate be in June 2025?
Will the unemployment rate among CS degree-holders rise to over 30% by 2030?
10% chance
Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?
16% chance
Will the May 2025 US Unemployment rate surpass the projected 4.2% (as reported on June 6, 2025 08:30 EST)?
64% chance
Will US unemployment be 25% or more before 2030?
11% chance
Will there be >15% unemployment at any time prior to January 1st 2026?
7% chance
Will Unemployment in the US Reach 5.5% in 2025?
44% chance
Will Unemployment in the US Reach 6.5% in 2025?
38% chance
Will US unemployment be 20% or more before 2030?
15% chance
Will world unemployment reach 20% at any time before 2030?
23% chance