Will I believe, 3 years from today, that publicly available AI tools have absolute advantage over human mathematicians in all areas of mathematical research?

I will not participate in this market.

Some background--I'm a math professor at the University of Toronto, mostly focusing on algebraic geometry and number theory.

I will resolve this market YES if I think publicly available AI tools outperform most professional mathematicians (e.g. me) as of July 17, 2028, and NO otherwise. In particular, for a YES resolution, they should be able to create high-quality original research with very little human input.

See here for a related market, with a more precise operationalization of a related question, albeit with some minor problems as a proxy: https://manifold.markets/TamayBesiroglu/will-ai-be-capable-of-producing-ann

• Update 2025-07-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that for a YES resolution, the AI must outperform humans in all areas of math research, which explicitly includes:

  • Creating definitions

  • Making conjectures