The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 2 years
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3
Ṁ1752025
29%
chance
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1M
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Resolves to my subjective opinion of the state of the art / expert consensus. (I don't have any better ideas)
(If you think this market is poorly written/specified/has a mistake, tell me, and I may edit it within the first couple days)
Operationalizing a claim from https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither (hacker news comments)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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sister markets - The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in two years / five years
"Large models aren’t more capable in the long run if we can iterate faster on small models" within two years / five years
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