The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 2 years

70Ṁ721

resolved May 16

Resolved

N/A

ALL

Resolves to my subjective opinion of the state of the art / expert consensus. (I don't have any better ideas)

(If you think this market is poorly written/specified/has a mistake, tell me, and I may edit it within the first couple days)

Operationalizing a claim from https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither (hacker news comments)

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I think I poorly specified whether I meant "will the gap close most of the way" or "will the gap close all of the way" - I would've resolved NO based on what I was thinking at the time, but it's really not obvious and open source is much closer than it was back then, so N/A

@jacksonpolack resolve? 🥺

filled a Ṁ10 NO at 60% order

the gap between 2.5 pro and deepseek v3/r1 is pretty big.

sold Ṁ10 NO

yknow what actually nvm, the gap was insane 2 years ago

Won't bet large as I don't know your mind well enough yet

sister markets - The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in two years / five years
"Large models aren’t more capable in the long run if we can iterate faster on small models" within two years / five years