The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 2 years
10
70Ṁ721May 4
79%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to my subjective opinion of the state of the art / expert consensus. (I don't have any better ideas)
(If you think this market is poorly written/specified/has a mistake, tell me, and I may edit it within the first couple days)
Operationalizing a claim from https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither (hacker news comments)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 5 years
42% chance
Best available language model from an OpenAI competitor by 2026
73% chance
Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026?
36% chance
OpenAI's next major AI model will be more open than GPT-4 by June 30, 2025
DeepSeek will have the best language model in the world by a clear margin as of Feb 1 2026
5% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
46% chance
Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?
4.3
In what year will an OpenAI natural language processing model be more competent than me in my area of expertise?
2033
By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
25% chance
We are going to start running out of data to train large language models in [YEAR]
Sort by:
filled a Ṁ10 NO at 60% order
the gap between 2.5 pro and deepseek v3/r1 is pretty big.
sold Ṁ10 NO
yknow what actually nvm, the gap was insane 2 years ago
sister markets - The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in two years / five years
"Large models aren’t more capable in the long run if we can iterate faster on small models" within two years / five years
People are also trading
Related questions
The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 5 years
42% chance
Best available language model from an OpenAI competitor by 2026
73% chance
Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026?
36% chance
OpenAI's next major AI model will be more open than GPT-4 by June 30, 2025
DeepSeek will have the best language model in the world by a clear margin as of Feb 1 2026
5% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
46% chance
Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?
4.3
In what year will an OpenAI natural language processing model be more competent than me in my area of expertise?
2033
By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
25% chance
We are going to start running out of data to train large language models in [YEAR]