DeepSeek will have the best language model in the world by a clear margin as of Feb 1 2026
7
100Ṁ5932026
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if DeepSeek has the top language model* in the world by a wide margin as of Feb 1st, 2026. If DeepSeek the organization is absorbed by another org, or otherwise transitions into a new org, then that organization's models are counted instead.
A DeepSeek model leading LMSys Arena by ≥90 points is sufficient but not necessary to count as "a wide margin."
Resolves NO otherwise.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
By 2025 will there be a competitive large language model with >50% of the total training data generated from a large language model?
75% chance
Best available language model from an OpenAI competitor by 2026
73% chance
Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026?
38% chance
The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 2 years
29% chance
The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 5 years
13% chance
By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
30% chance
Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?
79% chance
By 2028 will a language model beat the Ender Dragon?
43% chance
Will any 10 trillion+ parameter language model that follows instructions be released to the public before 2026?
38% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
48% chance