The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 5 years | Manifold

The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 5 years

5

90Ṁ190

May 4

42%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to my subjective opinion of the state of the art / expert consensus. (I don't have any better ideas)

(If you think this market is poorly written/specified/has a mistake, tell me, and I may edit it within the first couple days)

Operationalizing a claim from https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither (hacker news comments)

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Best available language model from an OpenAI competitor by 2026

Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026?

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?

DeepSeek will have the best language model in the world by a clear margin as of Feb 1 2026

Will a Large Language Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed paper by the end of 2025?

In 2030, will there be more than 10 $5bn companies that are some form of large language model focused on a specific task. ie not Microsoft, not OpenAI,

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Will there be a language model called GPT-5, released by OpenAI, this decade?

By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]

In what year will an OpenAI natural language processing model be more competent than me in my area of expertise?

Related questions

Best available language model from an OpenAI competitor by 2026

Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026?

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?

DeepSeek will have the best language model in the world by a clear margin as of Feb 1 2026

Will a Large Language Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed paper by the end of 2025?

In 2030, will there be more than 10 $5bn companies that are some form of large language model focused on a specific task. ie not Microsoft, not OpenAI,

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Will there be a language model called GPT-5, released by OpenAI, this decade?

By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]

In what year will an OpenAI natural language processing model be more competent than me in my area of expertise?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy