Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026?

At any point before Jan 1 2026, for a period of 3 months or more, will the most used general purpose language model (at least 70% on mmlu, or comparable in other benchmarks) be one produced by anyone other than OpenAI?

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

How does this get measured? You could easily have locally run LLAMA LLM's running on thousands of smartphone apps for chats as they are essentially free, but we might not know what's what's being used across all of those apps.

@PatrickDelaney I don’t know, but I’ll do my best to estimate such things at the time

predicts YES

@DavidJohnston Github stars?

bought Ṁ50 of NO