Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026?
7
150Ṁ145
2026
36%
chance

At any point before Jan 1 2026, for a period of 3 months or more, will the most used general purpose language model (at least 70% on mmlu, or comparable in other benchmarks) be one produced by anyone other than OpenAI?

AI
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Best available language model from an OpenAI competitor by 2026
73% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
45% chance
DeepSeek will have the best language model in the world by a clear margin as of Feb 1 2026
5% chance
Next model open sourced by OpenAI?
By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
25% chance
Will a language model that runs locally on a consumer cellphone beat GPT4 by EOY 2026?
78% chance
Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?
80% chance
Will there be a language model called GPT-5, released by OpenAI, this decade?
95% chance
How big will Mistral's known largest language model be? (2024)
By 2028 will a language model beat the Ender Dragon?
56% chance
Sort by:

How does this get measured? You could easily have locally run LLAMA LLM's running on thousands of smartphone apps for chats as they are essentially free, but we might not know what's what's being used across all of those apps.

@PatrickDelaney I don’t know, but I’ll do my best to estimate such things at the time

predictedYES

@DavidJohnston Github stars?

People are also trading

Best available language model from an OpenAI competitor by 2026
73% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
45% chance
DeepSeek will have the best language model in the world by a clear margin as of Feb 1 2026
5% chance
Next model open sourced by OpenAI?
By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
25% chance
Will a language model that runs locally on a consumer cellphone beat GPT4 by EOY 2026?
78% chance
Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?
80% chance
Will there be a language model called GPT-5, released by OpenAI, this decade?
95% chance
How big will Mistral's known largest language model be? (2024)
By 2028 will a language model beat the Ender Dragon?
56% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy