Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026?
6
150Ṁ135
2026
38%
chance

At any point before Jan 1 2026, for a period of 3 months or more, will the most used general purpose language model (at least 70% on mmlu, or comparable in other benchmarks) be one produced by anyone other than OpenAI?

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

How does this get measured? You could easily have locally run LLAMA LLM's running on thousands of smartphone apps for chats as they are essentially free, but we might not know what's what's being used across all of those apps.

@PatrickDelaney I don’t know, but I’ll do my best to estimate such things at the time

predictedYES

@DavidJohnston Github stars?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules