Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026?
Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026?
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At any point before Jan 1 2026, for a period of 3 months or more, will the most used general purpose language model (at least 70% on mmlu, or comparable in other benchmarks) be one produced by anyone other than OpenAI?
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How does this get measured? You could easily have locally run LLAMA LLM's running on thousands of smartphone apps for chats as they are essentially free, but we might not know what's what's being used across all of those apps.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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