
1
Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026?
6
closes 2026
40%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
At any point before Jan 1 2026, for a period of 3 months or more, will the most used general purpose language model (at least 70% on mmlu, or comparable in other benchmarks) be one produced by anyone other than OpenAI?
Sort by:

How does this get measured? You could easily have locally run LLAMA LLM's running on thousands of smartphone apps for chats as they are essentially free, but we might not know what's what's being used across all of those apps.
@PatrickDelaney I don’t know, but I’ll do my best to estimate such things at the time


Sort by:

.jpg%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3Df5102a39-82bc-44a6-a47a-75749ab28c74&w=96&q=75)


Related markets
Will there be an AI language model that surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?60%
By 2025 will there be a competitive large language model with >50% of the total training data generated from a large language model?78%
Which Open Source Machine Learning / AI Development Streamlining Platform Will Be The Most Popular at the end of 2024?
In what year will an OpenAI natural language processing model be more competent than me in my area of expertise?2037
Related markets
Will there be an AI language model that surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?60%
By 2025 will there be a competitive large language model with >50% of the total training data generated from a large language model?78%
Which Open Source Machine Learning / AI Development Streamlining Platform Will Be The Most Popular at the end of 2024?
In what year will an OpenAI natural language processing model be more competent than me in my area of expertise?2037