By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
6
130Ṁ762030
25%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
TODO for more exact resolution criteria, but overall it will probably end up being resolved according to my subjective judgement.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Transformer-Based LLMs Make Up ≥75% of Parameters in the Top General AI by 2030?
50% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
45% chance
Will a Large Language Model save a human life through medical advice by the end of 2025?
92% chance
Will a Large Language Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed paper by the end of 2025?
34% chance
Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?
80% chance
Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026?
36% chance
In 2030, will there be more than 10 $5bn companies that are some form of large language model focused on a specific task. ie not Microsoft, not OpenAI,
62% chance
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
28% chance
Will the first AGI be a large language model?
47% chance
Will all of the publicly accessible parts of heavengames.com/aok.heavengames.com become part of a large language model like Claude or GPT by 2025?
59% chance