Will there be an AI language model that surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
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2025
66%
chance

Question is about any models by competitors vs any current or future openAI models.

To surpass chatGPT, it cannot just be more popular. If a language model exists that is undoubtedly the most accurate, reliable, capable, and powerful, that model will win regardless of popularity (provided, at least some members of the public have access).

If there is dispute as to which is more powerful, a significant popularity/accessibility advantage will most likely decide the winner. There must be public access for it to be eligible.

Criteria will be discussed and developed on the original market for 2024. Any criteria written there supersedes the criteria here.

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