Question is about any current or future openAI models vs any competitor models.
If a language model exists that is undoubtedly the most accurate, reliable, capable, and powerful, that model will win. If there is dispute as to which is more powerful, a significant popularity/accessibility advantage will decide the winner. There must be public access for it to be eligible.
See previous market for more insight into my resolution plan: /Gen/will-there-be-an-ai-language-model
2024 recap: capabilities were "similar". Both Google and openAI models tied for first place on LLM Arena. OpenAI won because of their popularity/market dominance.
Update 2025-11-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator will not resolve based on current Gemini 3 lead alone. Will wait until end of year to allow for:
Potential new OpenAI model releases
Further discussion on whether the lead is "strong enough"
Assessment of whether there is dispute about which model is more powerful
Creator leans toward YES if OpenAI releases no new models by end of year.
Update 2025-11-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator will not resolve early despite Gemini 3.0's current lead. The bar for early resolution is higher than the bar for determining a winner at end-of-year assessment. Creator still leans YES but will wait before resolving.
Update 2025-12-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator distinguishes between early resolution criteria vs end-of-year resolution criteria:
Early resolution requires a model that is so obviously better it takes a huge chunk of market share from ChatGPT (which still has ~80% market share)
End-of-year resolution (Dec 31) will be based on whatever is the best model, with popularity only acting as a tie-breaker rather than a necessary component
Creator acknowledges Gemini/Claude dominate ChatGPT for top-end use, but notes most people either don't know or don't care that they are better.
1,000People are also trading
@IsaacKing tool to compare: https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/
ChatGPT has lost its previous lead with high certainty to Gemini and even Claude, gap even wider in coding performance to opus.
@24norwayElimSolberg I am definitely being overly safe by waiting, but we're so close that it doesn't make sense to me to resolve now. As far as I can tell chatGPT still has ~80% of the market share, and my initial market (which this is a continuation of) required a model that was so-obviously better that it took a huge chunk of market share for early resolution. EOY resolution is just whatever is the best, and popularity only acts as a tie-breaker rather than a necessary component.
Gemini/Claude both dominate chatGPT for top-end use, but most people either don't know, or don't care, that they are better.
he says interesting things about pretraining here: https://youtu.be/3K-R4yVjJfU?si=OX8DeITH_Y1OIl4m&t=1969
@gen, please add clarification , I was just worried you might not be online.
I believe this may already be resolved; just add clarification so NO holders can exit without huge losses.
Not only is Gemini 3.0 now significantly ahead, but on the web benchmark Opus shows a massive 100-point gap.
That’s undeniable.
The question was whether it would ever happen, and it already has.
@1bets As I said, I lean towards resolving YES, but the bar for early resolution is higher than the bar for a competing company/AI to win an end-of-year assessment. Most benchmarks still have them pretty close but obviously openAI does not command the lead it once did.
Not going to resolve today..
edit: also I apologise if it's a bit messy/unclear but there was a lot of discussion last year about early resolution and because we're so close to eoy it makes the most sense to me to just wait and see where things fall
@Gen I suppose there's also still a slim chance that OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 next week that lands back on top.
in web dev the gap is crazy with newly released yesterday claude opus 4.5
ChatGPT verdict: Here is the short, direct answer based on your criteria AND the 2024 precedent you gave:
Does a 25-point LM Arena lead for Gemini 3.0 over ChatGPT imply the market should resolve YES?
→ Under your stated rules, this strongly leans YES.
Below is the reasoning mapped exactly onto your criteria.
✅ 1. Accuracy & Reliability (your second metric)
A 25-point gap on LM Arena is not a small margin — it is a clear, significant, consistent performance edge.
It means Gemini wins head-to-head user-judged quality battles by a wide and reliable margin, not a statistical tie.
This directly satisfies your criterion for a model that is “undoubtedly more accurate and reliable.”
In 2024, Gemini and OpenAI were tied — that is why the market resolved NO.
Now they are not tied. The gap is wide.
So for this metric:
Gemini 3.0 > OpenAI → Strongly YES
✅ 2. Power & Capability (your third metric)
Benchmarks and public performance indicators suggest Gemini 3.0 (especially 3-Pro) now shows:
Stronger reasoning
Stronger coding
Better multimodal performance
Higher competitive performance across tasks
Even without parameter counts, public performance already reflects capability.
Your rules say capability breakthroughs outweigh popularity if accuracy is also strong.
Here, Gemini has both.
So for this metric:
Gemini 3.0 > OpenAI → Strongly YES
➖ 3. Popularity & Accessibility (your first metric)
This only matters if the models are close in performance, as in 2024.
They are not close now.
A model with undisputed superiority wins even if less popular, per your rules.
You specified:
If a language model exists that is undoubtedly the most accurate, reliable, capable, and powerful, that model will win regardless of popularity (as long as it has public access).
Gemini 3.0 is public and has a large but not OpenAI-sized user base.
However, popularity only decides the winner if performance is disputed.
Here, the 25-point gap means performance is NOT disputed.
So popularity does not prevent a YES.
📌 2024 Precedent Applied to 2025
You said:
2024 recap: capabilities were "similar". OpenAI won because of popularity.
This year:
Capabilities are NOT similar.
Gemini has a meaningful, non-marginal performance lead.
Therefore, applying your own 2024 logic:
This is exactly the scenario where popularity no longer protects OpenAI.
A superior competitor wins.
⭐ Final Resolution According to Your Rules
Given:
A clear, significant, measurable performance gap (25 points)
Strong evidence of higher capability
Public accessibility
No longer a “disputed” performance tier
Your rules say this should resolve:
YES
A competitor model has strongly surpassed ChatGPT/OpenAI before the end of 2025.
If you want, I can phrase this in an even shorter adjudication summary suitable for submission.
@1bets I largely agree with this, but it is really funny that you used chatGPT to make your point instead of Gemini...
@Gen to be sure they aren’t lying, since ChatGPT has been actually outperformed by the new gemini 3.0 and also opus models.