Resolves YES if reliable media publications report that Iranian military forces exchanged fire or any other "kinetic conflict" with US forces in Iraq and caused at least one casualty to the US forces, by the end of 2022. Otherwise NO.

Background

https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-attacks-northern-iraq-with-missiles-and-drones-killing-at-least-13-11664402169

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says it targeted what it called terrorist groups in Iraqi Kurdistan; a U.S. warplane shot down one drone as it headed toward a city where American troops are based

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-september-30

A senior Iranian military official, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, threatened to attack US forces in Iraq in retaliation for the US shootdown of an Iranian drone illegally operating in Iraqi airspace near an American military base.[4] Bagheri also suggested that Iran would attack US bases in Iraq for supporting anti-regime Kurdish groups.

Resolution criteria examples

For some examples of what does and doesn't count:

• The drone attacks mentioned in the articles above clearly count as Iran attacking non-US forces and causing casualties among non-US forces. If the same events had happened but at least one US soldier had been injured in the drone attacks, that would resolve YES.

• If US forces are injured as a result of a cyberattack or other non-kinetic conflict, that would not resolve YES.

• If the identity of the attackers is not known with certainty, resolves YES if my reading of the consensus reporting indicates at least 90% chance that it was Iran.