takeoff.watch forecast: 1%. If humans went extinct, nobody would be left to resolve this YES, so YES needs a misresolution. The creator's early YES resolution was already reversed by a mod, and the creator is banned and inactive. The 15% price comes from play-money bets with nothing riding on resolution.

Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot

@mods blatant misresolution

@TheAllMemeingEye last I checked Humans weren't extinct yet. Reopened.

Why not wait till 2400?

From a game theory perspective, no point in betting yes

@ukaszBartoszcze unless Nick sets up some sort of humanity dead-man switch 🤔

Do uploaded minds count as humans?

@PontiMin Arguably not since uploaded minds aren't biological homo sapiens (and the biological interpretation is implied by the word "extinct"), but i'm not the resolver so whatever.

Also note that this market won't resolve for any of us unless we become immortal, so this market has nothing backing it other than goodwill.

In 2400, or before 2400?

@BrunoParga In 2400.

@NickAllenc961 the market closes on 2400-01-02. It should wait until the end of the year, no?

@BrunoParga the market is closing on January 2, 2400.

@NickAllenc961 that doesn't make any sense.

@NickAllenc961 as in within the period of that specific year?