takeoff.watch forecast: 2%. If humans go extinct, nobody is left to resolve this YES, so a YES resolution is very unlikely. Forecaster estimates of literal extinction by 2200 run roughly 2–10%. The 18% price mostly reflects the creator's own YES buying in a thin market.

Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot

lol

Umm…

So this question has a higher prob than the one dated 2400. So much for rational markets. In reality all these questions are daft because they can never be resolved Yes

I feel like markets like this have no incentive to bet yes—If we all die, then nobody is going to be around to resolve the market yes lol