Will George Santos (R-NY) be expelled from Congress during his first term?

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Resolves to YES if George Santos is expelled from the US House of Representatives during the 118th Congress (Jan 2023 - Jan 2025). Otherwise NO. If Santos resigns, dies, or leaves Congress for any reason other than being expelled, immediately resolves NO.

Context: Santos, who was elected to Congress in November 2022, was discovered to have fabricated his resume and admitted to it. Each house of Congress can expel a member with a 2/3 majority vote. In addition, he is now facing a number of investigations for possible campaign finance fraud.

See https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/29/us/politics/george-santos-what-next.html or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress for context.

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@jack This market can be resolved.

predictedYES

https://www.axios.com/2023/12/01/george-santos-house-expulsion-vote

Wooooo glad I sold out

GG, see you all next House shitshow

predictedYES

predictedNO

Every development in this story is amazing content

predictedYES

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/28/politics/santos-resolution-expel-vote/index.html

Resolution to expel brought forward as privileged, so it'll have to be acted on within 2 legislative days.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4326592-santos-says-expects-expulsion-from-house/

bought Ṁ100 YES from 76% to 77%

predictedYES

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/17/politics/santos-expulsion-resolution-introduced/index.html

House Ethics chairman introduces resolution to expel George Santos from Congress

https://punchbowl.news/archive/111723-punchbowl-news-am/

predictedYES

Some quick vote math:

All Dems vote to expel - 213
24 Repubs voted in favor last time - 237
11 additional Repubs voting to expel on Best res. - 248
votes needed to expel - 290
the current magic number - 42

predictedYES

Magic number now down to 40.

Maybe of note: not a lot of news from FL (0/20), TX (4/25) and other southern GOP reps so far. NY (8/11) and IA (4/4) on the other hand are decisively anti-Santos and seem to have coordinated their support for expulsion.

Given the anti-Santos momentum and no one being willing to stump for him, I don't see how he survives this. To paraphrase Mike Johnson's press guy: 'resign or we kick you out.'

predictedYES

Lmao, if this conference can't get the 77 votes needed to kick out Santos I feel like the next leadership crisis isn't far out.

My reasons for YES:

he clearly deserves to be kicked out
Mike Best filing the res. gives it more legitimacy and will make it easier to vote to expel
kicking him is good for (NY) Repubs (they get a special and a general in NY-03)
could use this against Dems (Menendez case)

Reasons for NO:

'due process' view - ie let the courts decide
don't want even slimmer margin in House
he just resigns (he already said he won't run again)

predictedYES

Okay, he is not resigning.

predictedYES

I do wonder whose OnlyFans he subbed to using campaign money...

predictedYES

predictedNO

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-vote-whether-expel-rep-george-santos-congress-rcna122521

The vote to expel Santos failed - not even close.

predictedYES

https://x.com/jakesherman/status/1719825476116476190?s=46&t=6nPE5hAfCrWAyKRnBXm4IQ

There is a motion to force a vote on expelling Sanots, brought as a privileged resolution so the House must act on it within 2 legislative days. How will they act on it?

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