Resolves to NO if Santos resigns, dies, is expelled from the House, or leaves his current Congressional seat (New York's third district) for any other reason before his term is scheduled to end in January 2025. Resolves to YES otherwise.
It doesn't matter whether Santos remains in the Republican Party or whether he runs for re-election.
Context: Santos, who was elected to Congress in November 2022, has been accused of fabricating his resumé.
(Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/19/politics/george-santos-resume/index.html)
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If there’s one thing Cy Young winner George Santos knows, it’s to never give up. I don’t think being charged with a felony would cause him to resign.
If you think Santos is safe after surviving the first expulsion vote, I have placed a big exit order at 55%.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/15/george-santos-campaign-account-refunds-new-debts-00121630
https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/10/politics/george-santos-superseding-indictment-doj/index.html
Likely more charges for Santos coming. Resignation from Congress might be part of a Santos plea deal
I'm long both this and the expulsion market. I don't see him voluntarily resigning.
Kevin McCarthy seems to be standing by Santos, to help keep the Republican majority in the House. Seems pretty unlikely that they’ll intentionally get rid of him and make it more difficult for themselves.
@Gabrielle He'll be too much of a liability by mid-2024, at which time he will have likely been convicted. Under House rules, he isn't supposed to vote if convicted, so between that and the diminishing returns as the length of remaining term goes down, his remaining utility to the GOP will continue to decrease.
@MartinRandall Yes, he can.
Under the formal rules for the US House of Representatives, according to a Congressional Research Service report, “an indicted Member may continue to participate in congressional proceedings and considerations.”
However, if a member is convicted of a crime that could result in a punishment of two or more years in prison, they are instructed under House rules not to participate in votes on the floor or in committee votes.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/09/politics/george-santos-charged-justice-department/index.html
@MartinRandall I would think so -- looked for an example, but they expelled Traficiant shortly before his prison term started.
This guy was briefly an Article III judge while in prison: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_B._Kent
(/ support transreligion, trans-college-educated, trans-did-crime-in-Brazil individuals — who are we to question if he identifies as a Goldman Sachs banker
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