Will Rep. George Santos (R-NY) remain in office until the scheduled end of his Congressional term?
47%
chance

Resolves to NO if Santos resigns, dies, is expelled from the House, or leaves his current Congressional seat (New York's third district) for any other reason before his term is scheduled to end in January 2025. Resolves to YES otherwise.

It doesn't matter whether Santos remains in the Republican Party or whether he runs for re-election.

Context: Santos, who was elected to Congress in November 2022, has been accused of fabricating his resumé.

(Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/19/politics/george-santos-resume/index.html)

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bought Ṁ10 of YES
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is predicting YES at 54%

(/ support transreligion, trans-college-educated, trans-did-crime-in-Brazil individuals — who are we to question if he identifies as a Goldman Sachs banker

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Nice market!