Will Rep. George Santos (R-NY) remain in office until the scheduled end of his Congressional term?

Resolves to NO if Santos resigns, dies, is expelled from the House, or leaves his current Congressional seat (New York's third district) for any other reason before his term is scheduled to end in January 2025. Resolves to YES otherwise.

It doesn't matter whether Santos remains in the Republican Party or whether he runs for re-election.

Context: Santos, who was elected to Congress in November 2022, has been accused of fabricating his resumé.

(Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/19/politics/george-santos-resume/index.html)

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Panfilo avatar
Panfilobought Ṁ0 of NO

We got some exit orders at 42/43 if he survives this ethics panel.

mattyb avatar
Matty Bbought Ṁ10 of YES

If there’s one thing Cy Young winner George Santos knows, it’s to never give up. I don’t think being charged with a felony would cause him to resign.

Panfilo avatar
Panfilobought Ṁ0 of NO

If you think Santos is safe after surviving the first expulsion vote, I have placed a big exit order at 55%.

sunnysummerday avatar

Likely more charges for Santos coming. Resignation from Congress might be part of a Santos plea deal

SemioticRivalry avatar
Semiotic Rivalrybought Ṁ250 of YES

I am baffled by the price of this market

twink_joan_didion avatar
twink joan didionpredicts YES
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ShakedKoplewitz avatar
Shaked Koplewitzpredicts YES

I'm long both this and the expulsion market. I don't see him voluntarily resigning.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellebought Ṁ300 of YES

Kevin McCarthy seems to be standing by Santos, to help keep the Republican majority in the House. Seems pretty unlikely that they’ll intentionally get rid of him and make it more difficult for themselves.

Jason avatar
Jasonbought Ṁ200 of NO

@Gabrielle He'll be too much of a liability by mid-2024, at which time he will have likely been convicted. Under House rules, he isn't supposed to vote if convicted, so between that and the diminishing returns as the length of remaining term goes down, his remaining utility to the GOP will continue to decrease.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellepredicts YES

@sunnysummerday Whelp. I guess we’ll see what the follow through is.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallbought Ṁ10 of YES

Can he be in Congress and in prison?

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ20 of YES

@MartinRandall Yes, he can.

Under the formal rules for the US House of Representatives, according to a Congressional Research Service report, “an indicted Member may continue to participate in congressional proceedings and considerations.”

However, if a member is convicted of a crime that could result in a punishment of two or more years in prison, they are instructed under House rules not to participate in votes on the floor or in committee votes.


Jason avatar
Jasonpredicts NO

@MartinRandall I would think so -- looked for an example, but they expelled Traficiant shortly before his prison term started.

This guy was briefly an Article III judge while in prison: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_B._Kent

jack avatar
Jackpredicts YES

Made a market on it:

jack avatar


Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingbought Ṁ10 of YES
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingpredicts YES

(/ support transreligion, trans-college-educated, trans-did-crime-in-Brazil individuals — who are we to question if he identifies as a Goldman Sachs banker

jack avatar