Will Rep. George Santos (R-NY) remain in office until the scheduled end of his Congressional term?
resolved Dec 1

Resolves to NO if Santos resigns, dies, is expelled from the House, or leaves his current Congressional seat (New York's third district) for any other reason before his term is scheduled to end in January 2025. Resolves to YES otherwise.

It doesn't matter whether Santos remains in the Republican Party or whether he runs for re-election.

Context: Santos, who was elected to Congress in November 2022, has been accused of fabricating his resumé.

(Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/19/politics/george-santos-resume/index.html)

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predicted NO


Embattled New York Rep. George Santos was expelled from the House on Friday in a historic vote following a House Ethics Committee investigation into alleged fraud perpetrated by his campaign after months of scandals around the freshman Republican lawmaker.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

We got some exit orders at 42/43 if he survives this ethics panel.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

If there’s one thing Cy Young winner George Santos knows, it’s to never give up. I don’t think being charged with a felony would cause him to resign.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

If you think Santos is safe after surviving the first expulsion vote, I have placed a big exit order at 55%.

Likely more charges for Santos coming. Resignation from Congress might be part of a Santos plea deal

bought Ṁ250 of YES

I am baffled by the price of this market

predicted YES

I'm long both this and the expulsion market. I don't see him voluntarily resigning.

bought Ṁ300 of YES

Kevin McCarthy seems to be standing by Santos, to help keep the Republican majority in the House. Seems pretty unlikely that they’ll intentionally get rid of him and make it more difficult for themselves.

bought Ṁ200 of NO

@Gabrielle He'll be too much of a liability by mid-2024, at which time he will have likely been convicted. Under House rules, he isn't supposed to vote if convicted, so between that and the diminishing returns as the length of remaining term goes down, his remaining utility to the GOP will continue to decrease.

predicted YES

@sunnysummerday Whelp. I guess we’ll see what the follow through is.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Can he be in Congress and in prison?

bought Ṁ20 of YES

@MartinRandall Yes, he can.

Under the formal rules for the US House of Representatives, according to a Congressional Research Service report, “an indicted Member may continue to participate in congressional proceedings and considerations.”

However, if a member is convicted of a crime that could result in a punishment of two or more years in prison, they are instructed under House rules not to participate in votes on the floor or in committee votes.


predicted NO

@MartinRandall I would think so -- looked for an example, but they expelled Traficiant shortly before his prison term started.

This guy was briefly an Article III judge while in prison: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_B._Kent

predicted YES

Made a market on it:


bought Ṁ10 of YES
predicted YES

(/ support transreligion, trans-college-educated, trans-did-crime-in-Brazil individuals — who are we to question if he identifies as a Goldman Sachs banker

predicted YES
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