Resolves to YES if George Santos resigns from the US House of Representatives during the 118th Congress (Jan 2023 - Jan 2025). Otherwise NO. If Santos is expelled from Congress, dies, or leaves Congress for any reason other than resignation, immediately resolves NO.
Context: Santos, who was elected to Congress in November 2022, was discovered to have fabricated his resume and admitted to it. In addition, he is now facing a number of investigations for possible campaign finance fraud.
Related:
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@PlasmaBallin Correct
If Santos is expelled from Congress, dies, or leaves Congress for any reason other than resignation, immediately resolves NO.
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If ever a tweet presaged a resignation, this is it.
I see no particular reason that someone as obviously and consistently shameless as Santos would resign.
I mean, maybe if the prosecutor offers him a massively favorable deal conditional on resignation, but I have a hard time believing that a prosecutor would offer such a deal.
Expulsion after he's convicted, sure, but expulsion ends this market as a "no".
Free money for anyone holding a YES position - sell it then buy the equivalent position in this market, for 10% better odds - https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-george-santos-resign-from-cong
Market likely updating on https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/05/09/politics/george-santos-charged-justice-department/index.html
@JoshuaB Yep. Early enough to predict plea or conviction by summer 2024 --> enough liability for McCarthy to show him the door