Will George Santos (R-NY) resign from Congress during his first term?
206
1.2K
2.1K
resolved Dec 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves to YES if George Santos resigns from the US House of Representatives during the 118th Congress (Jan 2023 - Jan 2025). Otherwise NO. If Santos is expelled from Congress, dies, or leaves Congress for any reason other than resignation, immediately resolves NO.

Context: Santos, who was elected to Congress in November 2022, was discovered to have fabricated his resume and admitted to it. In addition, he is now facing a number of investigations for possible campaign finance fraud.

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bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

I assume this can resolve NO, since his first term is now over.

predicted NO

@PlasmaBallin Correct

If Santos is expelled from Congress, dies, or leaves Congress for any reason other than resignation, immediately resolves NO.

predicted NO
boughtṀ26YES

Yes, @BottieMcBotface, shovel mana to me!

predicted YES

If ever a tweet presaged a resignation, this is it.

https://twitter.com/MrSantosNY/status/1717648255717081148

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I see no particular reason that someone as obviously and consistently shameless as Santos would resign.

I mean, maybe if the prosecutor offers him a massively favorable deal conditional on resignation, but I have a hard time believing that a prosecutor would offer such a deal.

Expulsion after he's convicted, sure, but expulsion ends this market as a "no".

predicted YES

@SEE There will be some back room deal. I think.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Free money for anyone holding a YES position - sell it then buy the equivalent position in this market, for 10% better odds - https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-george-santos-resign-from-cong

predicted YES

@JoshuaB Yep. Early enough to predict plea or conviction by summer 2024 --> enough liability for McCarthy to show him the door