Which party will win the special election to replace George Santos?
แน€2.1k
resolved Feb 14
100%99.7%
Democrat
0.2%
Republican
0.0%
Santos vacates the seat late enough that there is no special election
0.0%
Santos completes his term
0.0%Other

A special election is held to fill any US House of Representatives vacancy, unless the vacancy occurs close enough to the next general election.

If in George Santos's current term as a US Representative (Jan 2023 - Jan 2025), Santos vacates the seat and a special election is held to replace him, resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the special election (if the party is not listed, it will be split out of "Other").

  • If Santos completes his term, resolves to that.

  • If Santos vacates the seat before the end of the term, but there is no special election because it is too close to the next general election or any other reason, resolves to "Santos vacates the seat late enough that there is no special election"

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reposted

Polls close at 9 ET!

I'm gonna try an experiment and offer a 1000 mana bounty to the comment on this market has the most likes when I check it later tonight, after the results are known. Comment can be prediction, post-results analysis, meme, whatever you want. I'm just curious what people think of the race.

Suozzi wins, race has been called by AP and many other decision desks: https://apnews.com/article/george-santos-suozzi-pilip-special-election-be0140979ca3050921579e90507bfe1f

Unfortunately I'm getting an error resolving any market right now, manifold is lagging a ton for me...

Ok it worked!

opened a แน€100 Republican YES at 4% order

The current vote tallies showing a massive Suozzi lead don't mean much as far as I can tell - if there were a needle, I don't think it would have moved much from where it started. Suozzi is dominating the vote in Queens, which is hardly surprising. Currently 82% of the votes in Queens have been tallied, with Suozzi leading 63-37, while only 2% of the votes in Nassau (the suburbs where the race is close) have been tallied.

For comparison, in 2020, Biden got 72% of the vote in Queens, and 54% in Nassau. https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/new-york/. So Suozzi is several points behind Biden based on the current tallies, which I think means that the race is still close.

bought แน€1,000 Democrat YES

@jack biden got 72% in queens overall, he got 59% in the small, very asian part of queens that's in this district

long island is pretty idiosyncratic so you can never rule out a crazy split but it'd be a pretty shocking upset at this point

bought แน€3,000 Democrat YES

Ok, so that suggests Suozzi outperforming Biden by a few percent in Queens which is a good indicator for him. But I think the Nassau results are much more important, as that is a much larger share of the votes.

Dollars on sale for $0.92 ๐Ÿƒ๐Ÿ’จ

Dems overperformed by like a trillion votes in the other special today

@SemioticRivalry Has this changed your mind on this race?

@MarkHamill I still think this is like 78-22

Made a new market on when the race will be called by AP:

The (main?) candidates are
Tom Suozzi Democrat

Mazi Pilip Republican

@ChristopherRandles Yes, the only candidates.

dem special election superpowers vs nassau county shifting literally 40 points to republicans since 2016

@SemioticRivalry I was trying to find election/polling data per district and wasn't really able to find a good source, can you link?

@jack only Daily Kos keeps track of that stuff, and only for presidential results. anything more than that, you need to go scouting for individual randos doing it on twitter as a hobby, there is unfortunately no centralized hub. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/14/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-2020

for this district though, here's 2022. even schumer lost it.

bought แน€10 Democrat YES

Found this for some arbitrage. It had Democrat at over 90% when I found it:

/BlueDragon/who-will-win-the-election-to-replac

There were 3 pre-election polls (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-york/) which gave Suozzi a +4, +4, and +1 lead, which is within the margin for error, but taking all three polls together gives a reasonably clear indication of Suozzi leading - unless, of course, there's biased polling error, which is entirely possible based on what we saw in e.g. 2016 and 2020. So that's why I think predicting roughly 85% D / 15% R looks about right to me.

This election is of particular interest given the narrow margin of control in the House, and as a test for campaign strategies for the elections in November. The election here is focusing a lot on immigration and the border, and how it goes will give interesting signal on how voters are responding to the breakdown of the bipartisan border deal, and the messaging from both parties. This article has a good description of it:

https://www.npr.org/2024/02/13/1230955410/border-security-dominates-in-new-york-special-election-to-replace-rep-santos

Also interesting is that there was a very large snowstorm on election day, which is expected to depress election-day turnout. I believe early voting has typically favored the Democrats in recent years since Republicans started pushing back against it, so this would also tend to hurt the Republicans in this race slightly.

reposted

George Santos is being replaced with a special election today. If you think he will be replaced by another Republican, you stand to win thousands of mana as of right now -- Republicans are trading at under 15%!

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