Resolves YES if Prize Points held as of 9/1 can be redeemed for USD prizes on the Manifold website before the end of 2024. Resolves NO otherwise at the end of 2024, or if Manifold makes an announcement that it will not happen.
Context: Manifold is planning to launch cash prizes but current predictions are that it may be in a different form than the current Prize Points system.
See also:
Details
The introduction of a new currency, even if it is called Prize Points as well, will not matter. This market is about existing balances of Prize Points on 9/1.
To count as "redeemable for cash" there must be a direct or indirect way to get cash in exchange for the Prize Points, it must be risk-free and cannot involve making trades on markets, and it must be such that 100,000 Prize Points can be converted to at least $70 USD (i.e. close to the current rate at which mana can be purchased, but with plenty of allowance for fees). Therefore, if Prize Points are converted into mana and then mana can be directly redeemed for cash, that would count; but if Prize Points are converted into mana and then you can only get cash after making some trades, that would not count.
All steps in this process must be officially supported by Manifold. For this market, it does not matter if any aspect of this is later found to be legally acceptable or legally unacceptable, only whether it is officially supported by Manifold at the time.
Donations to charity, merchandise, or gift cards do not count - you must be able to receive cash in USD. Other currencies do not count (foreign currencies, crypto, etc).
It counts if many users can do this even if there are limitations - e.g. it can be limited to only users in one country or state, to users over 18, to bets on a limited set of markets, etc. and that would still suffice.
It must be possible to do on the Manifold website.
Related questions
@nikki you're betting NO here @22%, and you're betting YES for september in the other market @57%
whats the reasoning?
@PeterBuyukliev we're expecting the current prize point system to get phased out in part two of the pivot. it's in the air as to what happens with the existing prize points, though, since it was originally intended to be the route to USD payouts
@jack out of curiosity, why exclude crypto? No idea if it is likely to matter, but fwiw, I’d have thought of that as consistent with the framing of the question (“redeemable for cash”). Could consider changing title to say “USD”
@Tyler31 They have no plans to use crypto, and crypto has a variety of definitional complexities. I based the criteria here off another one that was about Manifold supporting cash prizes in the US specifically, so that was mainly why it's USD specifically, it's also just simpler. I edited to say USD as suggested
@robm hopefully someone else can link more context, and this is all speculation and subject to change, but manifold seems to be introducing a new currency, such that there will be separate play money markets (mana) and cash prize markets (the new currency).
I'd assume with probability about 75% according to current market odds here that prize points will not be convertible to cash, i.e. you'll just be able to convert back to mana or to donations.
@coproduct This is not based on any mod info! I'm probably behind the times actually, I heard about this from @nikki (who is not a mod)
@jBosc This one counts if anyone in some country can redeem for USD.
It counts if many users can do this even if there are limitations - e.g. it can be limited to only users in one state, to users over 18, to bets on a limited set of markets, etc. and that would still suffice.
Alright, so if there is a theoretical new currency called Cash Money, and the site lets users convert existing Prize Points into Cash Money at any rate, "risk free", before the specified date, then this resolves Yes?
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Side quest: What if the prize points need to be passed through a nominally "not risk free" pathway (such as market resolution) but the "not risk free" pathway can be navigated via some arbitrage method that is "definitely risk free, but you lost some value along the way".
@Eliza Thanks, added
, and it must be such that 100,000 Prize Points can be converted to at least $70 USD.
similar to https://manifold.markets/jack/will-manifold-launch-real-money-pri
Side quest: What if the prize points need to be passed through a nominally "not risk free" pathway (such as market resolution) but the "not risk free" pathway can be navigated via some arbitrage method that is "definitely risk free, but you lost some value along the way".
Nope, intentionally not allowing that. Otherwise any PP -> mana -> new PP system would count. Edited the wording slightly
This would be nice to support. I think @Sinclair had the idea for prize points becoming directly able to be withdrawn (after conversion).
@JamesGrugett I don't think it matters that much long term. Mostly I think it's really confusing for users to have the PP system in limbo, and it would be easier if it were just mana. But given that people already expected PP to be redeemable eventually, would be nice if it's possible.