Why was PredictIt shut down?

Basic

Ṁ757

resolved Jul 31

70%53%

Kalshi lobbying

30%26%

Unknown

7%Other

@tnim__ lawsuit

12%

Violating the no-action letter, as outlined in letter 22-08 https://www.cftc.gov/csl/22-08/download

For what reason or reasons was PredictIt shut down?

All of those which have clear evidence for them at resolution time will resolve positively. I will consider clear evidence to be my own 90% certainty or a statement from the CFTC or an admission of guilt from PreditIt.

I may consider other kinds of statements from PredictIt, but these seem open to bias.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#PredictIt

Get

1,000

and

3.00

16 Comments

8 Holders

28 Trades

Sort by:

Resolving questions like this is kind of ugly. This is my proposed resolution.

It seems like from the CFTC's denial of Kalshi's latest application that they just don't like prediction markets?

From the Kalshi CFTC application linked above:

Contracts on political control of Congress available to US participants have been trading for nearly a decade. Since 2014, a similar contract has been available for trading on an unregistered trading venue that purports to operate under a No-Action Letter that was issued by the Division of Market Oversight in 2014 and granted relief to operate without complying with a number of aspects of the Commodity Exchange Act and Commission Regulations.
The Exchange is proposing to bring such contracts onto a fully regulated exchange operating under the core principles applicable to a DCM, with participant funds safeguarded at a DCO operating under the core principles applicable to a DCO. The Exchange believes it is time to offer these widely used but unregulated contracts on a fully regulated basis so that U.S. persons can hedge risks arising from political control on a market with robust safeguards and transparency.

Apparently we might find out what happened because someone filed a FOIA request to the CFTC. https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-foia-request-reveal-that-kal

https://karlstack.substack.com/p/a-textbook-case-of-regulatory-capture?r=a2ttw&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

@ahalekelly I doubt i’m gonna resolve this positively, because they didn’t say specifically why, but i’m open to argument

Good discussion of this on latest SSG pod, particularly starting around 18:45: https://pca.st/episode/930bd486-1de6-446a-aab6-9c68893504b8?t=1133.0

Oh Kalshi just applied for CFTC approval to have election markets https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/regulatory/notices/CONGRESS%20for%20posting.pdf

If no answers meet the burden of proof in the description

I doubt we'll ever find out what really happened though

@NathanpmYoung https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-passage-of-polymarket

What's wrong with the CFTC's current statement? https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8567-22

@horse they claim that PredictIt hasn't operated in accordance with the original authorization letter, but it doesn't seem to me like PredictIt has meaningfully violated any of the terms that they claim in letter 22-08. It could be that PredictIt is operated by https://www.aristotle.com/, a for-profit company. Or maybe #9 (advertising), considering that I have seen PredictIt ads on Twitter, but the fact that I followed PredictIt on Twitter means the ads were probably fairly targeted. Seems like excuses because to hide their real motives. https://www.cftc.gov/csl/22-08/download

If PredictIt was clearly operating in violation of the original letter, wouldn't the CFTC state the violations more clearly? The purpose of the letter wasn't to explain their reasoning, it was written to be intentionally vague so that there's no specific claim for PredictIt to dispute.

@ahalekelly What do you know that I don't?

cf https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1555387475845324800?s=20&t=Lq92GhyVuckPr9qMAxS2WQ

Related questions

Related questions