For what reason or reasons was PredictIt shut down?
All of those which have clear evidence for them at resolution time will resolve positively. I will consider clear evidence to be my own 90% certainty or a statement from the CFTC or an admission of guilt from PreditIt.
I may consider other kinds of statements from PredictIt, but these seem open to bias.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ96 | |
| 2 | Ṁ49 | |
| 3 | Ṁ14 | |
| 4 | Ṁ6 | |
| 5 | Ṁ3 |
From the Kalshi CFTC application linked above:
Contracts on political control of Congress available to US participants have been trading for nearly a decade. Since 2014, a similar contract has been available for trading on an unregistered trading venue that purports to operate under a No-Action Letter that was issued by the Division of Market Oversight in 2014 and granted relief to operate without complying with a number of aspects of the Commodity Exchange Act and Commission Regulations.
The Exchange is proposing to bring such contracts onto a fully regulated exchange operating under the core principles applicable to a DCM, with participant funds safeguarded at a DCO operating under the core principles applicable to a DCO. The Exchange believes it is time to offer these widely used but unregulated contracts on a fully regulated basis so that U.S. persons can hedge risks arising from political control on a market with robust safeguards and transparency.
Apparently we might find out what happened because someone filed a FOIA request to the CFTC. https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-foia-request-reveal-that-kal
@ahalekelly I doubt i’m gonna resolve this positively, because they didn’t say specifically why, but i’m open to argument