Prop resolves Yes if a US federal or state entity files a market manipulation or insider trading case involving Polymarket or Kalshi by April 15.
This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest
The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:
https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7
This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve. Do not bet on this market if that is going to bother you.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ67 | |
| 2 | Ṁ37 | |
| 3 | Ṁ31 | |
| 4 | Ṁ24 | |
| 5 | Ṁ22 |
Seeing no evidence of such a prosecution. Coverage of Congressional testimony yesterday would surely have mentioned it. Going to resolve this as No, any contrary claims? https://observer.com/2026/04/kalshi-tarek-mansour-doj-insider-trading/