Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.
How "Other" works: I will add more top candidates to this question. If you bet on "Other" that is the same as betting on all candidates that are added after your bet.
(May resolve provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes; if Manifold allows provisional resolutions.)
Related questions
Panic of the Year (PotY)
It's a bit sad that people found the one poll were Biden is up and are pretending everything is OK.
If you're not going to do the responsibile thing and check a poll aggregator at least click through to that Twitter profile and look at the other polls they posted.
Am I wrong to strongly overweigh the importance of the NYT & its editorial board? And to view them as a proxy for what people (esp. dem insiders) with real power think?
has a candidate ever won the nomination after the nyt unanimously called for them to drop out?
have they ever gotten behind a candidate that didn’t end up being the nominee?
Feels like a major signal, but I wonder if I’m missing something
I'd say it probably started with their endorsements and interview in the 2020 primary, but has escalated during his Presidency.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/04/25/new-york-times-biden-white-house-00154219
I'm biased, because I know him and his father was my doctor for 20 years.
He went to college to study political science when I was younger and then he basically just started running for everything and constantly won. He was very young when he was Montgomery County commissioner, and then became Attorney General, and then governor.
All of the successful Democratic Presidents have one thing in common - they were young. Kennedy, Clinton, and Obama, the three who didn't lose reelection, were around 44 or so. Shapiro is also very young, at 51. Being young is what people are looking for now. Additionally, he and Harris are the best two options because they both have a background in prosecution, and the opponent is a criminal.
The best option remains for Biden to simply say he's going to resign in a month, set up a smooth transition, and let Harris show that the world didn't end while she was President and allow any initial gaffes to be buried by the Olympics. Then, they have an incumbent running, there's no contested convention, she can select Shapiro to run with her, and they suddenly have 17 years of Democratic domination possible, while the Republicans continue to lose easy Senate seats by running Trump again in '28.
Biden has the opportunity to save the country and set up a significant possibility of reasonable governance for the remainder of human history. Will he do that? I doubt it, and he will likely go down in history as one of America's worst Presidents solely due to his arrogance and hunger for power. He's essentially no different than my grandfather when he was 90, not wanting to give up his driver's license even though he couldn't see and hadn't driven in ten years.
NYT Editorial Board calling for Biden to drop out: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html