Who will win the 2028 US presidential elections?
Basic
12
Ṁ10892028
23%
JD Vance
11%
Ivanka Trump
11%
10%
Donald Trump
6%
Josh Shapiro
6%
Ron DeSantis
5%
Gavin Newsom
3%
Other candidate with Trump as their last name
3%
Michelle Obama
3%
AOC
3%
Nikki Haley
2%
Kamala Harris
1.9%
Elizabeth Warren
1.2%
Elon Musk
1.1%
Joe Biden
1.1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1.1%
Vivek Ramaswamy
1.1%
Chris Christie
1.1%
Bernie Sanders
1.1%
Other Democrat Politician
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Anyone that adds a new candidate and bets for them will get a Ṁ10 subsidy for their contribution of new information and potentially new candidates.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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52% chance