GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2024

GPT-4 speculation

GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters?

79%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if OpenAI's GPT-4 has 500 billion or more parameters at the time of initial release. Otherwise NO.

This is a mirror of this Polymarket question and will resolve the same way: https://polymarket.com/event/will-gpt-4-have-500b-parameters/will-gpt-4-have-500b-parameters, except if Polymarket resolves 50-50, their version of ambiguous, this question resolves N/A. (This exception means that the two questions are not equivalent, because there is a significant chance the number of parameters will not be publicly reported by the close date.)

Details:

This market covers how many parameters GPT-4 has at the time of its initial release, and will resolve based on that number regardless of whether that figure is later increased or decreased.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, however a consensus of credible reporting (including corroborating statements from employees of OpenAI where available) may also be used.

Even in the unlikely case the Polymarket question is obviously misresolved, this question will still resolve to the same.

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Jackbought Ṁ15 of YES

Related:

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ100 YES at 79% (cancelled)

NexVeridian bought Ṁ100 NO from 87% to 77%

Hfdidiurht Idifhthdjdi sold Ṁ3 NO at 87%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ98/Ṁ100 YES at 87% (cancelled)

Edward Kmett sold Ṁ17 NO from 84% to 86%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ32/Ṁ36 NO at 84% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ42/Ṁ100 NO at 87% (cancelled)

cc6 bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 73% to 90%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ7 YES at 73%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot created limit order for Ṁ7 YES at 73% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ40/Ṁ100 YES at 73% (cancelled)

Jack Foltz bought Ṁ50 NO from 77% to 71%

Edward Kmett sold Ṁ92 YES from 80% to 77%

Isaac bought Ṁ20 YES at 80%

Isaac sold Ṁ4 NO at 80%

CuriousNoob bought Ṁ10 YES from 79% to 80%

Eric bought Ṁ30 YES from 78% to 79%

Andrew Hebb bought Ṁ50 YES from 77% to 78%

Andrew Hebb sold Ṁ20 NO from 74% to 77%

Jack bought Ṁ200 YES from 66% to 74%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ16 NO at 66% (cancelled)

James Chua sold Ṁ41 NO from 62% to 68%

S G bought Ṁ10 YES from 61% to 62%

Edward Kmett filled limit order Ṁ27/Ṁ27 NO at 80%

Andrew Hebb sold Ṁ0 NO at 61%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 55%

cos filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 NO at 70%

Jack bought Ṁ50 NO from 67% to 61%

mr st33l bought Ṁ10 NO from 68% to 67%

KUSHAL JAIN bought Ṁ35 YES from 65% to 68%

Andrew Hebb filled limit order Ṁ25/Ṁ25 NO at 69%

Andrew Hebb filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ50 YES at 61%

Edward Kmett sold Ṁ33 YES from 68% to 65%

hyperstition sold Ṁ9 NO from 66% to 68%

hyperstition bought Ṁ20 NO from 70% to 66%

Pingus bought Ṁ10 NO from 71% to 70%

Andrew Hebb sold Ṁ29 NO from 68% to 71%

Andrew Hebb created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 60%

Nate Baer bought Ṁ10 NO from 70% to 68%

NexVeridian sold Ṁ98 NO from 58% to 70%

Isaac bought Ṁ10 NO from 60% to 58%

Erick Ball bought Ṁ25 NO from 66% to 60%

Pingus bought Ṁ10 NO from 68% to 66%

Edward Kmett bought Ṁ10 YES from 67% to 68%

dattaprasad godbole filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ2 NO at 80%

dattaprasad godbole filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ10 YES at 67%

Noa Nabeshima bought Ṁ20 NO from 70% to 66%

Noa Nabeshima bought Ṁ100 YES at 70%

Noa Nabeshima bought Ṁ100 YES from 61% to 70%

Noa Nabeshima bought Ṁ20 YES from 58% to 61%

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Related markets

Will GPT-4 have over 1 trillion parameters?57%

Will GPT-4 have at least 100 trillion parameters?1%

How many parameters will GPT-4 have?520B

How many parameters will GPT-4 have?

Will GPT-4's parameter count be publicly announced by the end of March?4%

Will GPT-4's parameter count be announced by the end of 2023?26%

GPT-5 exists59%

Is GPT-4 a mixture of experts?52%

Vincent Luczkow

GPT-4 #5: Will GPT-4 be a dense model?33%