Will GPT-5 have over 10 trillion parameters?
9
62
200
2030
60%
chance

(resolution criteria copied from Mira's 1 trillion parameter market: https://manifold.markets/market/will-gpt5-have-over-1-trillion-para)

This market resolves YES if the initial GPT-5 model, when released by OpenAI, was trained with over 10 trillion parameters, otherwise it will resolve NO.

If OpenAI ceases to exist, publicly confirms there will not be a GPT-5, or it hasn't been released by 2030, this market resolves NA. If OpenAI is acquired or merges, "OpenAI" refers to the new company.

"Initial GPT-5 model" refers to the first release of GPT-5 by OpenAI, not including subsequent updates, variants, or distillations:

  1. Distillations: If GPT-5 has variants that are distilled into having fewer parameters, these do not affect the market resolution.

  2. Subsequent variants: If new variants in the GPT-5 series are trained with more parameters after the initial release, these do not count toward the resolution.

  3. Naming: GPT-5 must be publicly recognized as such by OpenAI. If it is called "GPT-5" internally, but has a public name like GPT-4.5, it doesn't count.

  4. If OpenAI trains multiple GPT-5 variants but staggers their releases, any of them is acceptable as long as they are announced together.

Confirmation of the number of parameters in the initial GPT-5 model must come from an official source, such as:

  1. OpenAI or Microsoft

  2. Current or former executives of OpenAI or Microsoft

  3. Current or former employees of OpenAI or Microsoft directly involved in the development of GPT-5

A journalist can serve as an acceptable proxy for an official source, provided that:

  1. The information clearly originates from an official source.

  2. The information is not based on rumors or unofficial statements.

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