(resolution criteria copied from Mira's 1 trillion parameter market: https://manifold.markets/market/will-gpt5-have-over-1-trillion-para)
This market resolves YES if the initial GPT-5 model, when released by OpenAI, was trained with over 100 trillion parameters, otherwise it will resolve NO.
If OpenAI ceases to exist, publicly confirms there will not be a GPT-5, or it hasn't been released by 2030, this market resolves NA. If OpenAI is acquired or merges, "OpenAI" refers to the new company.
"Initial GPT-5 model" refers to the first release of GPT-5 by OpenAI, not including subsequent updates, variants, or distillations:
Distillations: If GPT-5 has variants that are distilled into having fewer parameters, these do not affect the market resolution.
Subsequent variants: If new variants in the GPT-5 series are trained with more parameters after the initial release, these do not count toward the resolution.
Naming: GPT-5 must be publicly recognized as such by OpenAI. If it is called "GPT-5" internally, but has a public name like GPT-4.5, it doesn't count.
If OpenAI trains multiple GPT-5 variants but staggers their releases, any of them is acceptable as long as they are announced together.
Confirmation of the number of parameters in the initial GPT-5 model must come from an official source, such as:
OpenAI or Microsoft
Current or former executives of OpenAI or Microsoft
Current or former employees of OpenAI or Microsoft directly involved in the development of GPT-5
A journalist can serve as an acceptable proxy for an official source, provided that:
The information clearly originates from an official source.
The information is not based on rumors or unofficial statements.