The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 and its lineages have been the dominant in the US since overtaking Delta in December 2021, though concerns remain over the emergence of a new variant as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere (US News & World Report, STAT, Deseret News).

The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States by week here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions.

For the week ending 22 October 2022, Omicron variants represented a combined 100.0% percent share of COVID lineages in the US (see "%Total").

This market will resolve to YES if before April 16, 2023, variant OTHER THAN OMICRON represents more than 70.00% share of Total Covid cases in the US.

The question would close as of the week for which the threshold is reached—and weeks including "Nowcast" estimates (i.e., columns with "NOWCAST" at the top) would count—or else the week ending 15 April 2023.

If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.

Nov 3, 12:48pm: Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be more than 70.0% of total US cases before Apr 16, 2023? → Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be more than 70% of total US cases before Apr 16, 2023?