Wuhan Institute of Virology defector before 2040
Basic
18
170
2040
39%
chance

A former scientist, staff, government official, or related background, who had Chinese citizenship at the time, will speak publicly in the US, UK, or EU about previously non public and significant information about the situation there related to the COVID or biosafety.

This is typically something the CCP opposes (although if they weren't around that wouldn't happen.) The claim may still become true in that case. If the person felt travels in and out of CCP controlled areas that pushed against the claim being true since the CCP wouldn't allow a true defector that freedom.

An anonymous report or intelligence reports, official or leaked, aren't enough. It has to be a individual named person speaking out somehow, and they have to be obviously not in foreign custody (hence the location requirement).

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Would "previously non public and significant information about the situation there related to the COVID or biosafety" include previously non-public evidence against the lab leak hypothesis?

Just to make something up: Suppose the leaked fact was "COVID was detected earlier than previously reported, and it was hushed up by Chinese authorities who feared public panic about the safety of the food supply."

Initially sure that seems reasonable. I can't think of there was a public, significant defector from the CCP that the public knew about. If someone came over from the lab and somehow brought documents we believed that affected the situation either way that would be quite something!