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https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-750k-mr-h#g4z2cb25g4f

Apple has cut its 2024 Vision Pro shipments to 400–450k units (vs. market consensus of 700–800k units or more).

https://medium.com/@mingchikuo/apple-cuts-2024-2025-vision-pro-shipment-forecasts-unfavorable-to-mr-headset-pancake-and-micro-38796834f930

Via

https://www.macrumors.com/2024/04/23/apple-cuts-vision-pro-shipments/

@breck If it will ship 400-450k units in 2024, than they are very likely to actually hit the 500k in 12 months set by this market.

Looks like they have sold over 200k already.

https://www.macrumors.com/2024/01/29/apple-vision-pro-headset-sales/

I created this market to track the Vision Pro sales on a more granular level

Does this date to the end of the calendar year, or to 1 year from the original SHIP/LAUNCH date?

@Eliza Sorry I just saw this! I’d say one year after it was purchase able, does that answer your question?

Apple Vision Pro Mixed Reality Headset to hit Apple Store in Mid January (December 29, 2023)

"According to Kuo’s statement, the Vision Pro is presently in mass production, with a target of 500,000 units set for 2024."

Sold my shares here because I realized I could make better use of the money arbitraging these other markets:
https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-750k-mr-h (previously, both the 500K and 750K markets were at 23%, which seems crazy)

https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-fee5899b9ba1

(this market, implying sales of 285K headsets, was previously at only 35%... even though the median sales expectation in https://manifold.markets/whalelang/how-many-units-will-apples-vision-p?r=d2hhbGVsYW5n is 400K units!)

@JacksonWagner Related markets / potential arbitrage opportunities:

150K headsets sold in 2024: https://manifold.markets/JacksonWagner/will-apple-sell-more-than-150k-visi
285K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-fee5899b9ba1

50th percentile estimate, currently 320K: https://manifold.markets/whalelang/how-many-units-will-apples-vision-p ...markets with thresholds below this 50th percentile estimate (150K and 285K) should IMO be above 50%; markets with higher thresholds (500K+) should be lower than 50%, or else this market (currently 320K) should move a lot.

500K: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-500k-mr-h
575K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea
750K: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-750k-mr-h
850K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-ecd06df8baab
1,400K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-6ba0eda02079

Will Apple sell more than 150k Vision Pro headsets in 2024?

66% chance. Sales includes non-refundable, full-price preorders (if offered). At $3500 each, 150k unit sales would generate a little over half a billion dollars of revenue.

Related market

https://manifold.markets/whalelang/how-many-units-will-apples-vision-p?r=d2hhbGVsYW5n

How Many Units Will Apple’s Vision Pro Headset Sell In The First Year?

460K expected. “Bank of America expects Apple to sell 1.5 million units of the Vision Pro in its first year, while Wedbush expects first-year sales of only 150,000 units” [1] “KGI Securities analyst Christine Wang said she expected shipments of 200,000 in the first year, while Credit Suisse predict…

Just my knowledge, but it is more than likely that Apple will not allow 6, 12, or 24 month financing for this product for those with Apple Card. Which will take a chunk away from those medium credit lines.

Probably also because Goldman Sachs is trying to unload Apple Card since they have already lost over $1 billion in their partnership. Guess that is what happens when you offer 0% installment interest on Apple Products...who woulda thunk 😂

https://www.ft.com/content/b6f06bde-17b0-4886-b465-b561212c96a9

Two people close to Apple and Luxshare, the Chinese contract manufacturer that will initially assemble the device, said it was preparing to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024. Multiple industry sources said Luxshare was currently Apple’s only assembler of the device. Separately, two China-based sole suppliers of certain components for the Vision Pro said Apple was only asking them for enough for 130,000 to 150,000 units in the first year.

@NoaNabeshima It seems like the bottleneck might not be a demand issue, but a production issue.

@NoaNabeshima should have tried to explain competent traders buying No before I donated to Acceleration

@NoaNabeshima I want other traders to tell me why they're trading the way they are in comments :c

For context 18M macbooks are sold per year and all VR headsets are ~6M per year according to 2 min of searching wo fact checking

@NoaNabeshima i just found out they're not selling M1 macs anymore :(

@firstuserhere (context: i needed to buy a new mac, and my m1 work mac is absolutely a beast, and one of the best laptops i've used. I don't know much about m2 macs)

@NoaNabeshima note: airpods took an aggressive meme campaign by apple ~2 months into their launch to be popular