Will I run at least 500 hours in 2024?
9
25
Ṁ103Ṁ190
Dec 31
33%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES if I have logged at least 500 hours of running on Strava in 2024. Activities that I will track as running: all kinds of running (road, trail, track, treadmill) including parts that are hiked when the main activity was a run (e.g., steep hills in a mountain race). Background:
My complete running history:
year | hours run
---- | ---------
2013 | 16
2014 | 297
2015 | 372
2016 | 416
2017 | 403
2018 | 376
2019 | 315
2020 | 303
2021 | 481
2022 | 379
2023 | 437
2024 | ?
As this is a commitment market, I will only buy YES and never sell (including shortly before resolution), regardless of which outcome I estimate to be most likely.
Previous versions of this question:
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Get Ṁ200 play money
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