Will I run at least 500 hours in 2024?
9
23
190
Dec 31
33%
chance

Resolves to YES if I have logged at least 500 hours of running on Strava in 2024. Activities that I will track as running: all kinds of running (road, trail, track, treadmill) including parts that are hiked when the main activity was a run (e.g., steep hills in a mountain race). Background:

My complete running history:

year | hours run

---- | ---------

2013 | 16

2014 | 297

2015 | 372

2016 | 416

2017 | 403

2018 | 376

2019 | 315

2020 | 303

2021 | 481

2022 | 379

2023 | 437

2024 | ?

As this is a commitment market, I will only buy YES and never sell (including shortly before resolution), regardless of which outcome I estimate to be most likely.

Previous versions of this question:

:

Get Ṁ200 play money

More related questions