Resolves to YES if I have logged at least 500 hours of running on Strava in 2022. Activities that I will track as running: all kinds of running (road, trail, track, treadmill) including parts that are hiked when the main activity was a run (e.g., steep hills in a mountain race). Background: I am an avid runner. Last year I have logged 483 hours of running (rounded). My goal this year is 500 hours, though I am currently at 100 hours (roughly 20 hours behind schedule). My current estimate of the probability that I'll hit 500 hours is roughly 40 %. Apr 1, 9:44am: Will post a link to my Strava when I resolve (all runs and cumulative stats visible on there).

Jul 15, 9:12pm: As this is a commitment market, I will only buy YES and never sell (including shortly before resolution), regardless of which outcome I estimate to be most likely.