Resolves to YES if I have logged at least 500 hours of running on Strava in 2023. Activities that I will track as running: all kinds of running (road, trail, track, treadmill) including parts that are hiked when the main activity was a run (e.g., steep hills in a mountain race). Background: I am an avid runner. In 2021, I logged 483 hours of running (rounded); I will add the 2022 numbers in January. My goal this year is 500 hours. Will post a link to my Strava when I resolve (all runs and cumulative stats visible on there).
As this is a commitment market, I will only buy YES and never sell (including shortly before resolution), regardless of which outcome I estimate to be most likely.
For the 2022 version of this question see this market:
1,000
3.00Thanks for all the betting, support and motivation! In 2023, I ran 436 hours and 55 minutes in total. Would have liked to crack 500 hours. In the first half of the year, I did not have a healthy work-run balance. I just did not find the time to run enough for this goal and my own aspirations. August to November was great, running-wise (with a little hiccup due to injury), and I'm very happy with the second half of my year. I'll probably make another goal for 2024, not sure if I should do 500 hours or go a bit lower or higher yet.
@howtodowtle Here is the 2024 market:
https://manifold.markets/howtodowtle/will-i-run-at-least-500-hours-in-20-ef46f29482c5
@howtodowtle you could set it up as a multiple choice market "how many hours will I run in 2024" with buckets for "400 or less", "401-500", "501-600", "601 or more". Maybe break it up into buckets of 50 if you want.
@mkalbert Ran a marathon in early December and now in full off-season. Still running a bit, but just for fun, this goal has zero impact on my running volume.
So, after stalking his Strava I've figured out that he has run around 437 hours so far this year. That puts him at an average of around an hour and a half of running a day. There are 68 days left in the year. That means even if he under performs his average by 50% for the rest of the year, it will still resolve yes. He is also on a recent uptick in hours spent running (for the past couple months).
@RobertCousineau As of today I only see 434 hours of running. The number you got might have been total activities combined (running, cycling, swimming).
[alpha deleted]
That’s what I’m seeing. I hope it’s accurate.
@NicoDelon Yeah that's definitely a better (more precise, specific to running) view than what I was looking at (if I remember correctly, a bar graph per month on the main page which I then grabbed the values from and added together).
@RobertCousineau I double-checked my strava and that bar graph does includes all activities.
@RobertCousineau He still ran more than in 2022 though less than in 2021 and runs a lot. He’s one heck of a runner.
@Odoacre Life situation is different: Early 2022 I was an employee and currently I'm trying to build a startup. Also living further away from the mountains now (but I have access to a treadmill). In general, running motivation is similar. In 2022, I was trying to only do trail races, now I'll throw in a few road races as well (with a focus on trails still). Also 2022 has been by far my most injury-plagued year ever, and so far I'm injury-free in 2023 (like most years before).
So all in all, many changes. I honestly don't know in which direction they will influence the outcome of this market.