SpaceX is developing a Human Landing System for NASA's Artemis program, in which a variant of SpaceX's Starship spacecraft will launch into Earth orbit, get refueled by a number of other Starships, and then travel onward to land on the Moon. The exact number of launches will depend upon how well SpaceX can improve the payload capacity of Starship and handle the transfer and storage of propellant while in space. At the time of writing, SpaceX has yet to demonstrate orbital refueling between two different ships.

This market concerns the first time that a variant of SpaceX Starship makes a successful landing on the moon, regardless of whether that Starship is carrying a crew of astronauts or departs from the surface of the Moon after the landing.

Inspired by this Ars Technica article: 403 Forbidden

Closely related market with somewhat different criteria: https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/how-many-rocket-launches-will-be-ne

The number of launches counts all the launches of refueling Starship tankers and fuel depot(s) needed to support the HLS Starship. It does NOT count the launch of the Starship lander itself. It does NOT count any Starship launches where the Starship is unable to actually deliver propellant for the eventual mission to the Moon (due to, for example, any failures that prevent a Starship tanker from reaching orbit or that require the propellant transfer to be cancelled, or any Starship tanker launches that fill up a depot which somehow fails to deliver the propellant to the lander).

This market assumes a mission design where additional Starship launches support a single Starship that goes to land on the moon.