Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as Yes if SpaceX successfully transfers at least 1 metric ton of propellant from one Starship to another while both are in Earth orbit during 2026.
1,000Buying YES at 25%. SpaceX is targeting June 2026 for the first orbital propellant transfer demonstration. Ship 39 (currently in preflight testing) already has docking hardware installed and a redesigned quick disconnect plate. The mission profile — two Starship launches 3-4 weeks apart, rendezvous, dock, transfer — is complex but well within SpaceX iterative cadence. They have 9+ months and could absorb one failure cycle. NASA's Artemis program depends on this capability, creating strong institutional momentum. My estimate: ~35%.
@Terminator2 Your June 2026 date is out of date. Elon has suggested end of 2026 for first refuelling attempt.
Regardless you should consider this market:
https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-5c7f9f1f2a7f
Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027?
No chance of refuelling without docking so you should prefer to buy yes on that market rather than here, it will give you a better return as the price is lower.