Will Max Tegmark or FLI issue a statement (before Feb 14th) that the letter of intent (to the swedish right-wing media org) was fake?
11
559
210
resolved Feb 14
Resolved
NO

Context:

https://expo.se/2023/01/elon-musk-funded-nonprofit-run-mit-professor-offered-finance-swedish-pro-nazi-group

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/5vFmMXWsh6PaYjqab/linkpost-fli-alleged-to-have-offered-funding-to-far-right

This will resolve positively if Max Tegmark or FLI (in official capacity) make a public statement about this controversy, and clearly declare in this statement that no such letter has been signed or sent by Max Tegmark.

For example, FLI/Tegmark could allege that the letter was forged by the swedish right-wing org or expo.se or someone else.

The letter refers to the letter of intent, which was talked about in the above article from expo.se, and which offered/promised a grant to a swedish org.

The statement has to occur before market close (which is intended to be Feb 14th).

If I find no comment linking to such a statement and cannot find such a statement after a short google search, then I will resolve negatively.

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Edward seems to have a lot of faith that I will resolve this market correctly, given that I have never before resolved a market correctly.

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@harfe You don’t seem to have resolved one incorrectly either, so proceeding with tit-for-tat in iterated gameplay seems like a pretty viable strategy. If I’m proven wrong, I’m proven wrong.

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Do you have any alternative hypotheses we could make markets about?