Will we know by end of 2024 who/what’s behind the chemical weapon attack on the Swedish secret police in february | Manifold

Will we know by end of 2024 who/what’s behind the chemical weapon attack on the Swedish secret police in february

10

390Ṁ1496

Jan 2

77%

No

0.4%

Yes, Russia

22%

Yes, an “accident”

0.5%

Yes, other state actor

0.3%

Yes, terrorism

https://www.svd.se/a/EQO34l/bekraftat-stridsgas-vid-sapos-hogkvarter

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68383608

Swedens security service SÄPO’s headquarters was attacked with chemical warfare gas.

What will be the official explanation for this event?

So far no suggestions have been made.

I will moderate the suggestions if needed.

I will not bet in this market myself.

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The police dropped the investigation in April 2024 and said that they didn't find any proof that it was anything more than a technical problem with the sensors. They also said none of the people who went to the hospital were affected by foreign substances.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/stockholm/utredning-om-gaslarm-pa-sapo-laggs-ner

@Pazzaz Doesn’t this mean accident?

bought Ṁ25 NO

@Riley12 I think accident is a lot closer to “no” if we know it’s just a problem with censors.

@Riley12 @Magnus_ what you think?

Still no news...

bought Ṁ5 YES

Does any state other than Russia have an incentive right now to send a threat to Sweden?

@TheAllMemeingEye China and Iran are both candidates... according to SÄPO's own list of suspects.

https://hosted.ap.org/dailycourier/article/24c132c17fa30bc73cee0b11d32d8db1/traces-toxic-gas-found-during-evacuation-swedish-security

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68428670

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[Metaculus] Will a terrorist attack in Sweden cause at least one death before 2031?

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Related questions

[Metaculus] Will a terrorist attack in Sweden cause at least one death before 2031?

Will there be another poisoning of someone attributed to Russia in another country before the end of 2030?

Will Sweden acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

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