What fraction of likes on comments on the "Popularity contest" bounty will be on comments that offer rewards for likes?

Ṁ375

Ṁ220

resolved Apr 25

Resolved as

66%

ALL

Resolves to PROB when the bounty for https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#tnevtcmiqm expires --- or some time in the last few days of April when I have time to do the arithmetic, whichever comes sooner --- according to [number of likes on non-edited comments that offer rewards for likes] / [total number of likes on non-edited comments].

I will post what I believe the correct resolution should be 48 hours before actually resolving, so that any commenters who wish can check my arithmetic.

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I suspect the original bounty is bugged, I think the 428 sitting there is left because of user contributions and it's not actually being distributed

@traders I counted 1127 likes on reward-offering comments, and 551 likes on non-edited non-reward-offering comments, for a projected resolution of 1127/(591+1127) = 66% forty-eight hours from now.

1127 likes on reward-offering comments:

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#2qx97deq48a 9 on the comment itself, and 7*92 + 8*8 on numbered replies, for a total of 717 likes

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#z1hqitee0z9 33

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#t6bzsccagh 18

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#stdqrfn07xg 28

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#iw598tn5xv 21

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#6ikqro4tokb 13

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#fkzqyjmjjb The comment and first reply are edited, but subsequent numbered replies have 9+9+9+9+8+8+9+9+9 = 79 likes.

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#x2pe7lsu94 26

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#ff7ga0jhkot 13

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#1lkaq6i6e86 14

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#14yx8j6m94sj Counting replies, there are 16 + 14 + 9*15 = 165 likes.

Total: 717+33+18+28+21+13+79+26+13+14+165 = 1127

591 likes on non-reward-offering comments:

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#ls4ccobaryp 3

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#k1m08hu20dd 9

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#hxmm3f295ro 2

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#91qohro3bd 6

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#ptlxopvk1o 2

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#8lkdrx946m3 3

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#0zt79bwa2jr 2

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#d4eypregeve 1

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#fkm8aukske 7

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#3mgohi135rr 5

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#novukinztc 10

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#4jmq1opymi9 4

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#1l2qtmtckkg 1

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#if81u654dl 10

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#ms2rt0weczd 3

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#e3fbblh8yw4 9

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#e2nwminyohh 7

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#ep69pfwying 10

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#nbj90znehib 9

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#slt9lca0emi 9

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#usoh4nf07we 4

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#5wgsucxmjbg 7

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#hvnu3e08m09 6

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#zhcl7uw81gh 5

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#wrwv8hxxg3o 4

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#cgbie4c9tub 7

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#tqr6dgh0fg 6

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#889trkt299b 3

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#eivkxrp4xi 5

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#590dltsnkkp 1

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#7ltphrfsca 1

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#qv62pvm6u3h 9

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#3g4lbzjtycj 9

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#tnevtcmiqm 9

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#u4b56vqf8co 1

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#khv6dv0wf3 2

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#0qr1g87yyrg 1

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#ojts4xm0hzo 2

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#db0gtc51c7k 5

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#6ihferhif9c 6

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#mbk39ldogm7 3

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#yjmku6e4dgp 3

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#24isjcaop8q 2

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#iud3uw74rqg 1

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#w5fmz5oe1kr 7+4*10=47 (counting numbered replies)

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#6u8rw3w691s 1

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#eywv0q6day 8

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#u40wfuif0mf 5

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#b997qn1kvd 2

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#4oqbxxa4tzs 4

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#liywtgop9i 3

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#8g3chyk26fj 9

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#vvkj565qqvr 19

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#j4tojvnmey 5

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#dboc5j370p 5

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#m8cbw747wi9 8

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#y5etwd028kg 8

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#7bo2w88eiq8 7

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#t3osp5rmh6 3

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#yp3fpnil0hl 2

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#b3xhdz9604u 1

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#afh5t5mpgzh 5

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#kpsb36ykcsm 5

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#b2xsbvy4nra 7

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#h4o4vbkmjku 7

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#o7n7r8x85it 7

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#wihplvf0yeb 6

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#4fn1cud7ims 1

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#2ay7agblvv7 12

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#7salseo8usp 3

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#az9g8qvjbk 12

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#zrjsacvuffh 3

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#ww4842drhir 8

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#zuis667txnb 7

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#rswuuhwp3np 3

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#2o3fuxjnbvu 6

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#zcibgdua0w 6

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#ja2pzknn8q 4

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#hrkumccpy5l 2

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#9knc3bript 8

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#u3p5o2f4l8e 8

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#6wfpa1um6ih 7

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#shw1z4q9ld8 6

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#9j4un8hrflp 5

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#d1mnv4qlmi 14

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#coqbc5og0f9 9

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#8v2wx1avtk3 8

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#w1207k5grp9 4

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#7xy5wswbo6 7

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#0zbs8ne0eqbl 3

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#ull9yf1fv7i 3

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#m6d76l0d27 2

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#asoeqlo6zhw 1

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#xbkwqfbzif9 4

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#xn5bnm1w5b 4

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#gyklwfntte 3

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#swpq9ktnj5 3

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#ds79hmjyhb8 5

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#zpad66b15gq 1

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#sbv7iewhzok 1

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#at196rwc5c6 1

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#sxkr1ghxwm 3

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#1dybi2eqdjk 2

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#7xquehrqq7k 4

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#g4ukk0rzg3 1

https://manifold.markets/Gen/popularity-contest-comment-and-get#vvkj565qqvr 19

Total 3+9+2+6+2+3+2+1+7+5+10+4+1+10+3+9+7+10+9+9+4+7+6+5+4+7+6+3+5+1+1+9+9+9+1+2+1+2+5+6+3+3+2+1+7+1+8+5+2+4+3+9+19+5+5+8+8+7+3+2+1+5+5+7+7+7+6+1+12+3+12+3+8+7+3+6+6+4+2+8+8+7+6+5+14+9+8+4+7+3+3+2+1+4+4+3+3+5+1+1+1+3+2+4+1+19 = 551

@traders I did the arithmetic and discovered a very relevant edge case: If a user commented "like all gazillion of the replies to this comment in exchange for mana payments" and then replied "Reply 1", ..., "Reply gazillion", should I count each of those replies as offering a reward for likes? On the one hand, the literal text "Reply [number]" doesn't imply any reward, but on the other hand there clearly is a reward in context. Let me know if you have an opinion on this. Since this is subjective, I've sold my position in this market and commit to not trading further.