I extended the close dates of the polls to May 12, since James just announced on Discord that he's delaying the mana devaluation until May 15. (May 12 is probably overkill for having a good enough sample size, but it's when I get back from a vacation in potentially-low-wifi areas of Scotland.) For polls with overwhelmingly one-sided responses, I'll resolve the corresponding markets on May 2 before I leave.

@traders All the polls are up (see https://manifold.markets/gregrosent?tab=questions). I've set the close dates to April 29 (end of the day, UK time) so that traders who wish to convert mana to charity under the old rate can more easily do so. But if few people have responded to the polls by then, or if Manifold announces that it's extending the May 1 deadline to donate under the old rate, then I will probably extend the close dates of the polls.

@gregrosent So accounts won't be corrected for rate changes ? I mean if my net worth is 8k Mana now it will still be 8k Mana in May ? Meaning it will prowimately be woth 10 times less ?

@Mich My understanding is that your number of mana will stay the same, but mana will be devalued 10x relative to the dollar.

Thanks for you're answer. Looks bad though.

@gregrosent thank you for your sacrifice! Making all those polls took real dedication

For context typical fatality rate was 30%

A pterodactyl, btw: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pterodactylus#/media/File:Pterodactylus_scale_mmartyniuk_wiki.png

@Tasty_Y thank you!

i was thinking Pteranodon

@Odoacre Seems there's a big difference between male and female, which did you have in mind?

@TheAllMemeingEye I would probably lose against either

@Odoacre Hmmm, I think there's a plausible medium chance a typical Manifold user could beat a female, since its beak is short enough that it would be way easier to land a successful punch, which since they had fragile hollow bones to enable flight, could be enough to cripple it. Meanwhile, the male beak looks so long most would probably get impaled before landing a hit

@TheAllMemeingEye the actual question is pterodactyl, which is much smaller, like smaller than a chicken.

@TheAllMemeingEye also, pteraneodon bones were not hollow AFAIK

(edit: scratch that, they did have hollow wing bones, not sure about the head bones tho)

@Mich

Is this a Star Wars stormtrooper?

Or a German Empire WW1 stormtrooper?

Or a Nazi Germany paramilitary stormtrooper?

Does unarmed include weapons of opportunity such as shoelaces, belt buckle, whatever you happen to be wearing ?

@Odoacre Personally I think that's reasonable, but I'm not going to clarify that in every single poll, so ultimately it's up to the voters' interpretation.

Hm, this just says AGI and not superintelligence. So it could be one that's just barely competent enough to be an AGI

@PlasmaBallin true, but as a digital mind it has the ability to copy itself rapidly, hide on any computer anywhere, and potentially bump up its clock speed. Assuming internet access it's game over, no way you can successfully find and destroy every copy, meanwhile it's working thousands of remote-working jobs simultaneously, saving up money to hire a hitman to kill you.

@TheAllMemeingEye I guess the deciding factors are a) does it have internet access, and b) is it initially in a robotic body (e.g. Boston Dynamics Atlas) or a defenceless laptop? If no internet and stuck on a laptop then I guess it has no chance, otherwise you're probably screwed.

Based on the 'but' is one of the 'half's meant to be a 'double'?

@TheAllMemeingEye I don't think, "half their reaction time" is an advantage, and "half the strength" a disadvantage

@dionisos right yeah I'm an idiot, sorry 😔

Nothing to be sorry about, we all misread sometime :-)

@dionisos if this had been higher profile there would've been a significant chance of resolving my cringe market haha