Will the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party receive equal to or more than 20% of votes in the February 23, 2025 federal election?
In 2021, the AfD received 10.4% of votes. Current polling shows AfD at 19.9%. Resolution based on official results for second (party) votes.
Source: https://politpro.eu/en/germany, https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2021/ergebnisse/bund-99.html
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how fast and conclusively do the Germans count votes? last year i had a market similar to this https://manifold.markets/dlin007/will-donald-trump-win-20-of-votes-i and Trump was at slightly over 20% then later on dropped to 19.96%. We couldn't tell the official results for weeks and misresolved the market
@dlin007 There is no country in the world worse at organizing election than the usa. It shouldn't be a problem there will be results like a day after.
@dlin007 Last election the official results were out 2 days after and never changed. I’ve never heard of something similar happening to Germany, but I can wait a few extra days to resolve if it seems particularly close. Thanks!