Will the AfD receive >= 20% of votes in the 2025 German federal election?
79
100Ṁ12kresolved Feb 26
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party receive equal to or more than 20% of votes in the February 23, 2025 federal election?
In 2021, the AfD received 10.4% of votes. Current polling shows AfD at 19.9%. Resolution based on official results for second (party) votes.
Source: https://politpro.eu/en/germany, https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2021/ergebnisse/bund-99.html
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ221 | |
| 2 | Ṁ215 | |
| 3 | Ṁ132 | |
| 4 | Ṁ130 | |
| 5 | Ṁ111 |
People are also trading
Related questions
When will the AfD be the largest party in Germany according to polls? V2
Will the German political party AfD (right to far-right) get over 35% of the votes in the next election?
20% chance
Will Alternative for Germany (AfD) be part of the German government by 2026?
1% chance
Will the FDP receive more than 5% of the vote in the next German federal election (regularly in 2029)?
39% chance
Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
59% chance
Will AfD win absolute majority in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?
12% chance
WIll AfD be part of a federal governing coalition in Germany by 2030?
31% chance
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
15% chance
Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?
40% chance
Will the AfD still exist by the year 2030?
85% chance