Quantum computing has the possibility to break encryption as we know it. The widely used encryption methods, including RSA, AES, ECC, SHA-256, and HMAC, face unprecedented challenges.

This question resolves YES if, by 2030, quantum computing successfully decrypts and exploits data secured by at least one of the mentioned encryption methods, leading to a substantial breach in the user data of a major company.

This question resolves NO if, by 2030, none of the commonly employed encryption methods are breached and exploited by quantum computing,.

Potential counterpoints (feel free to refute):

Quantum cryptography already exists.

Quantum computing progress does not look promising.

Modern cryptography might actually be broken by an ASI earlier than we figure out how quantum computing works.

My expectations of an ASI breaking cryptography using QC are very low since there may be simpler ways to go about this.

Potential ways this could go the other way:

Unexpected breakthroughs in QC. I’d deem this scenario unlikely to happen unless we get an ASI. However, if we do, it is dubious that the cryptography methods would be taken by surprise if the ASI is indeed aligned. If it is not aligned, we are arguably doomed anyway.

QC somehow being the optimal way for an unaligned ASI to maximize its utility function (I think this is highly unlikely).

Unknown unknowns (to me). Again, unlikely given what I’ve heard of QC, but nevertheless possible.

@ValeriiR The thing is, I feel like in 6 years, a lot will change. It feels likely that some new breakthrough will come. I’m not really an expert, but given the rapid rate of tech development, something will probably happen in the world of quantum computing. The real issue arises when you consider that quantum computing has to get to the stage where enough people are getting their hands on quantum computers that malicious people manage to get one too.

@geuber_ I'm not sure things look so bright for QC. For AI, yes. For QC, it doesn't look like it.