Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030?

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In 1994 Peter Shor developed a quantum algorithm for finding the prime factors of an integer; on a quantum computer it runs in polylogarithmic time, which is almost an exponential speed-up over the fastest classical algorithms.

Major cryptosystems rely on the relative difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes. Large quantum computers could utilise the algorithm to pose a major threat to these systems.

This market will resolve YES if any major cryptosystem is broken using a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm by 2030; else, it will resolve NO.

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