Which major technology company will make the most significant quantum computing breakthrough by 2030? | Manifold

Which major technology company will make the most significant quantum computing breakthrough by 2030?

6

Ṁ250Ṁ114

2030

13%

Google/Alphabet

25%

IBM

6%

Microsoft

6%

Amazon

6%

Intel

6%

Rigetti

8%

IonQ

8%

Alibaba

6%

Baidu

14%

Other

This market predicts which major technology company will achieve the most significant breakthrough in quantum computing by December 31, 2029. A "significant breakthrough" is defined as: 1. Development of a quantum computer with >1000 logical qubits, OR 2. First demonstration of quantum advantage for a commercially relevant problem, OR 3. Development of a quantum-resistant cryptography standard that becomes widely adopted. The breakthrough must be publicly announced and independently verified by at least two academic institutions.

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https://blog.google/technology/research/quantum-echoes-willow-verifiable-quantum-advantage/

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Related questions

Which sector will be the first to widely adopt quantum computing for production workloads?

Will a quantum computer with at least 1500 qubits be announced before the end of 2030?

From which countries will the 5 most performant quantum computer corporates in 2028 have originated?

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

Will quantum computing break cybersecurity by 2030?

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?

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Which Company or Lab will release a Quantum Computer that can break RSA-2048 first

Will quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?