Will the Vesuvius Challenge actually succeed?
23
713
Ṁ1.9KṀ450
resolved Feb 5
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Similar to the below market but it's specifically asking whether I, the market creator, will judge it to have been a success. If they retroactively change the grand prize criteria to be less strict, it's possible the below question will resolve YES, but I might resolve it NO.
I'll very likely only resolve this market YES if someone manages to read at least one scroll and there is at least moderate confidence that it's not hallucinated. Ultimately resolution is at my discretion.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ478 | |
2 | Ṁ78 | |
3 | Ṁ31 | |
4 | Ṁ16 | |
5 | Ṁ8 |
Sort by:
Related questions
Will the Phlegraean Fields super volcano erupt by the end of 2025?
20% chance
Will ESA's HERACLES mission successfully land on the moon?
57% chance
Will the first rocket launch from the UK's SaxaVord spaceport be successful?
67% chance
Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?
93% chance
Will the Phlegraean Fields super volcano erupt by the end of 2024?
20% chance
Will a human walk on Venus before 2035?
6% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 5 or greater before 2035?
49% chance
Will a supervolcano eruption happen by 2100?
8% chance
Will NASA's Artemis 3 mission be successful?
93% chance
Will the Niland Mud Volcano reverse course before 2030?
20% chance