Will the Vesuvius Challenge grand prize be claimed?
resolved Feb 5

Background: The Vesuvius Challenge is a machine learning and computer vision competition to read the Herculaneum Papyri. The Grand Prize ($150,000) will be awarded to the first team to render either one of the fully-scanned scrolls readable by 11:59pm Pacific, December 31st 2023.

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repostedpredicted NO

Stage 2 is starting now

predicted YES


@LarsDoucet You absolute madlad well done


The Vesuvius Challenge ("ancient scroll prize") Grand Prize has been claimed! Congrats to the winners. This is a big deal for scholars of antiquity! https://scrollprize.org/grandprize

There will be a winner announced on Monday: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vybdv2QkGzE

@SG Will this resolve Yes if the Grand Prize is given via a lowering/changing/ignoring of the goal?

predicted NO

This poll should be closed, right? The challenge only went through the end of 2023

bought Ṁ40 of NO

@SpaceboyLuke They are waiting for the results of the contest to be released I suppose.

sold Ṁ495 of NO

They're acting on twitter like there is something to build hype to over these few days, so I'm out!

predicted NO

@Panfilo the bots don't know about the twitter hype

predicted NO

@Panfilo Isn't the hype the segmenter I posted 3 days ago?

@Shump They’re linking people to the challenge site in the comments and I don’t know why they would do a big push this week if an anticlimax was on the way, from a marketing perspective.

predicted NO

Some cool results today. We have this ink detection output, a new and highly improved segmenter, and some improved ink detection results from a masked pertaining approa


bought Ṁ100 of NO

Tick tock. Still no submissions...

@Shump How do you know?

predicted NO

@fortenforge You're right, I haven't noticed this. I interpreted a cryptic message from the founders to mean there is still no submission, but it's just an interpretation

bought Ṁ200 of NO

Remember guys, this is a race. Only the first valid submission wins the grand prize. Which means that as of right now, no team is confident that they have a valid solution. They only have less than 2 weeks to get there.

bought Ṁ20,000 of YES

I've lost so much mana on manifold this year, might as well YOLO it one last time ;)

sold Ṁ216 of YES

@LarsDoucet YOLO it on markets that have liquidity and limit orders (like GPT-4 solving sudokus consistently or @firstuserhere walking 100k steps). You're too smart to bet this up to 98% </3

bought Ṁ0 of YES

Yes or at least give traders a chance to bet against you before spending the entire amount. I would have bought more NO at a much worse price

predicted YES

@RobertCousineau I'm not smart lol

predicted YES

@LarsDoucet VINDICATION epic lol

@LarsDoucet How come your profit is only 2700?

@fortenforge Buying it up from 66 to 98 only got me 1,565 shares above my baseline (20K)

Totally worth it lol

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