Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the time period during which Anthropic officially announces or launches a developer-facing native decision API, "System One" model, or direct equivalent.

To qualify, the API must be explicitly designed to return structured, typed decisions (such as calibrated probabilities, classification choices, or scores) rather than standard open-ended text completions, matching the paradigm established by TypeSafe’s Jev and OpenAI’s Decision API.

• Sources of Truth: Official announcements will be verified via the Anthropic News Blog or official Anthropic developer documentation.

• Resolution Dates: Resolution is based on the date of the public announcement of the API's availability (including private/public beta, developer preview, or general availability):

  • Before January 1, 2027: Announced on or before December 31, 2026.

  • Q1 2027: January 1, 2027 – March 31, 2027.

  • Q2 2027: April 1, 2027 – June 30, 2027.

  • Q3 2027: July 1, 2027 – September 30, 2027.

  • Q4 2027: October 1, 2027 – December 31, 2027.

  • 2028 or later or never: January 1, 2028 or later, or if no such API is released.

• Edge Cases: If Anthropic releases minor feature updates to standard Claude models (e.g., standard JSON mode or tool use enhancements) without launching a dedicated high-speed, probabilistic decision API/model, those updates will not qualify. The release must be marketed or documented as a decision-specialized API/model.

Background

In September 2026, TypeSafe AI launched Jev, a specialized "System One" model designed strictly for ultra-fast, low-cost structured decisions (probabilities, scores, categorical choices) without open-ended text generation. Shortly after, on September 29, 2026, OpenAI answered by launching its own Decision API powered by its Luna model.

These models address a growing bottleneck in agentic workflows: using massive, expensive reasoning LLMs for simple high-frequency classification, routing, or filtering tasks. This market tracks when Anthropic will introduce its own native competitor to Jev and OpenAI's Decision API.

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