OpenAI DevDay predictions
104
2.8K
7.5K
resolved Nov 9
Resolved
YES
GPT-4 vision announced to be available via API
Resolved
YES
API access to DALLE-3 announced
Resolved
YES
Text to speech available via API
Resolved
YES
Full access to a model (weights, embeddings, etc) is announced (even if with a waitlist)
Resolved
YES
GPT-4 price reduction
Resolved
YES
"Gizmo" announcement: Chatbots with custom tools, actions, files
Resolved
YES
GPT-4 speed improvement
Resolved
YES
OpenAI will use the word "AGI" anywhere in the official announcement(post, livestream)
Resolved
YES
GPT-4 and GPT-3.5-Turbo-16k fine-tuning
Resolved
YES
Longer context window (>32k for GPT-4, >16k for GPT-3.5) announced
Resolved
YES
Someone on twitter will make fun of Sam Altman
Resolved
YES
GPT-4 context size >= 100k tokens
Resolved
YES
GPT-4 context size > 32k tokens (anything larger than the current 32k model)
Resolved
YES
OpenAI announces ability to create bots with custom instruction messages through the ChatGPT app
Resolved
YES
GPT-4 finetuning is released
Resolved
YES
Ability to create and share your own GPT
Resolved
YES
A platform for custom AI agents is announced
Resolved
YES
Announcement of a Marketplace - Search and deploy chatbots created by other users
Resolved
YES
Ability to use uploaded files as references for the conversation
Resolved
YES
“GPT-4 Turbo” released

Announcement post

Please join us for our first developer conference, OpenAI DevDay, on November 6, 2023 in San Francisco.

The one-day event will bring hundreds of developers from around the world together with the team at OpenAI to preview new tools and exchange ideas. In-person attendees will also be able to join breakout sessions led by members of OpenAI’s technical staff.

“We’re looking forward to showing our latest work to enable developers to build new things,” said Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI. 

Feel free to submit anything (serious/fun/techincal, anything goes) relevant to predicting things about this event. Things not related to the event will be N/Ad.

The event will be streamed at this youtube link

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An OpenAI product will have "Sunshine" branding. (Word or AI-generated concept art on the announcement are both okay)

I think this was Q🌟 , which was announced today. I wasn't sure about its exact nature, so it wasn't a "product" it was an algorithm/technique.... (star = sun)

/Mira/will-openai-launch-a-new-product-wi

looks like the profits are bugged...

A new Team Plan will be announced

There's Free, Plus, and then goes straight to "Contact Sales":

ChatGPT Enterprise (openai.com)

You've always had the option to Contact Sales, the pricing hasn't changed, so this should resolve NO.

New pricing for unlimited high-speed GPT-4 access

Resolves NO I think. A dedicated "unlimited" instance is about the same cost as it's been all year. API costs went down but are capped. My ChatGPT is still limited to 50 messages.

The @OpenAI Twitter account will make a tweet about DevDay that gets 100k likes

Resolves NO. Highest I see is 13k.

Full access to a model (weights, embeddings, etc) is announced (even if with a waitlist)

wait what? When did they release a model?

@firstuserhere I see, thanks!

ChatGPT "Enterprise" level service is available to purchase by individual customers

Actual enterprise starts at like $2 million. But sure you could probably buy it if you really wanted to.

Wider access to GPT4 32k API announced

Should this resolve N/A?

bought Ṁ100 of Wider access to GPT4... NO

@HedShock I think that one's NO since it refers to 32k specifically, even if it's made moot by a larger 128k offering.

bought Ṁ100 of Image embedding API NO

It's a whole day-long event though, right? So we can't resolve stuff NO just yet?

@Mira the event happened, they'll expand about these announcements and give demos and all that but we cannot verify that stuff now, so.

if some big announcement happens today anyway, I will re-resolve it to the correct answer.

Was message cap increase announced or discussed? Why is the "full access to a model" option so close to 50%? @Mira did you notice sunshine branding anywhere? I didn't but I wasn't on the lookout for it anyway

@firstuserhere For models, they released a Stable Diffusion VAE with better text consistency timed for DevDay(but released on Github 18 hours ago):

https://github.com/openai/consistencydecoder

bought Ṁ7 of Full access to a mod... YES

@firstuserhere Also they announced Whisper V3, which IIUC is usually fully open sourced with weights

sold Ṁ12 of The @OpenAI Twitter ... NO

@theshortbread that's brilliant! Any objections to a YES?

The API no longer requires "repaying" for previously sent messages (chat style, only the last message is paid for each time)

State wasn't what I had in mind for this one, it was more about the regular API (saving/reusing previous user and assistant messages), which didn't happen afaik.
Can resolve No

bought Ṁ100 of Yudkowksy fearmonger... NO

Yud did not, in fact, fearmongers about AI during the DevDay stream.

bought Ṁ10 of A hardware device is... YES

@jgyou unexpected outcome

@firstuserhere it seems like you should have waited to resolve this one until the end of the day.

bought Ṁ1,000 of Existential Risk is ... NO

Ok i've resolved the clear cut ones. I wasn't able to watch the full event, someone help me figure out the resolutions to the unresolved options.

@firstuserhere oh I just reopened but if you want it closed you can close it

@Gen It's better to close now because i've asked people for help with resolution of the unresolved options, and do not want their trades to influence their judgements in helping with the resolution

I will reopen for the options that refer to things yet to happen, after resolving the predictions for the event.

@firstuserhere Not sure some of the time-constraints of your resolutions were clear prior to today.

@Broseph Ok, i will see what I can do

Edit: I've asked admins to unresolve the options (some or all is up to them), and re-resolve to the correct thingy if need be. Highly unlikely, but there you go.