Official OpenAI announcement, product managers' posts, or OpenAI executives' posts must feature the sun or sunshine relating to a new product announcement. "Product" can also be a major update to an existing product, but minor updates won't count.
I won't bet in this market, because there is some subjectivity in what counts as sunshine or "major". But I would be buying YES @ 10%.
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I managram'd everyone your cost basis back. I'm still a little bit overexcited from the last few days, and perhaps too sensitive reacting to every bit of possible predictive information I can get.
But even if I wanted to get in on the Q* joke, I didn't word the question quite right. Phrased it too precisely and missed the mark when it was announced.
"According to one of the sources, long-time executive Mira Murati told employees on Wednesday that a letter about the AI breakthrough called Q* (pronounced Q-Star), precipitated the board's actions."
We have an executive from OpenAI giving the information.
They're hyping it up like a big deal, with a board coup and everything, so it's "major".
Q* = Q🌟, the sun is a star.
I think I count this one. Q* must be the "sunshine-related announcement" that was going to be made today.
@Mira but is it "Official OpenAI announcement, product managers' posts, or OpenAI executives' posts"? This is rumor in newspaper about what one executive said non publicly.
@Weezing would you have bet differently if it was worded to allow "leaks"?
also: do respect causality - I created this market because I was expecting something to drop today but didn't know the exact nature of it. I wanted to bet on it, but there's no market sufficiently precise. So from my perspective, the thing I wanted to bet on happened.
@Mira i bet at 40% so not really, but some people might have.
I was just surprised you meticulously listed what counts for this and then resolve it based on something else.
But whatever, it's probably not worth discussing this too much and you said it will be subjective.
"Q*"
"Star"
The sun is a star
Do I count this? It's a leak not official....
I'll close the market in case something else drops in the next 6 hours. If not, I'll check if anybody who works at OpenAI references it.
OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster (cnbc.com)
@Mira I think people might have bet differently if the description said something about leaks. OpenAI's releases are way more rare than leaks from insiders.