MANIFOLD
OpenAI weekly active users by end of 2025?
4
Ṁ175Ṁ1.3k
resolved Mar 12
Resolved
~0.85 Billion users
Resolved
YES
Above 0.8B
Resolved
NO
Above 1.0B
Resolved
NO
Above 1.1B
Resolved
NO
Above 1.2B
Resolved
NO
Above 1.3B
Resolved
NO
Above 1.4B
Resolved
NO
Above 0.9B

This market will resolve to the number of weekly active users (WAU) of OpenAI's products.

The question will be resolved based on official reports by OpenAI if available, by the end of January 2026. If official reports are unavailable, resolves based on a media reports as available at the end of January 2026. If no such reports are available, the deadline will be extended to February 2026. (If I still can't find decent numbers by the end of February, the question will N/A.)

ChatGPT uses will be assumed to be equal to OpenAI users unless a report/source explicitly notes the difference.

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I plan to resolve this to >0.8B, <0.9B, based on various 3rd party projections, and this announcement from the end of February: https://openai.com/index/scaling-ai-for-everyone/
It lists the number of users as >0.9B, but based on the timing and the article's mention of a lot of subscribers (admittedly not WAUs) coming in Jan/Feb, I think it is sufficient evidence for a <0.9B resolution for 2025.

Any objections to this resolution?

I still can't seem to find decent numbers, so this will remain open until the end of February.

@UnconditionalProbability What will you do once february ends?

@adonisds From the question description: "If I still can't find decent numbers by the end of February, the question will N/A."

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