Resolves to a consensus of reliable sources. Buckets are left-inclusive.
See also:
/Bayesian/openai-2026-peak-valuation
/sophiawisdom/openai-2025-revenue
/Bayesian/openai-revenue-in-2026 (this market)
People are also trading
Just want to make a general note about all of these revenue markets: It's extremely important to note that "revenue earned in 2026" is different from annualized run rate revenue (revenue earned in a month * 12, basically). I've seen many people confuse the two. I think that most people talk about annualized revenue - it's much more commonly reported (which also makes it a lot easier to resolve), and I personally think it's the more valuable metric.
@jack i agree and might N/A these markets and make the other version, with markets resolving every quarter, and have them be unlinked MC where some number needs to be hit by then, that way more precision in the buckets can be added over time. that's been my plan for a few weeks, didn't get around to it
@Bayesian they would be required to report quarterly revenue but I think a lot of fast growing tech companies also report ARR in addition