🏅 Top traders

Can a moderator resolve the last open option and close the market?

@NicoDelon I tried resolving it to N/A, but I get "APIError: Negative payouts too large for resolution. Contact admin."

I created a variant of this here

Very vanilla. I am disappointed.

Hello all. Since this hit the 100 answer limit, I made a followup market at /firstuserhere/firstuserheres-guessing-game-part-2

This market has one of the most .. interesting.. graphs

@Gen It’s like a Piet Mondrian painting!! I love it!!

Is this a literal van? Is there additional context surrounding this that you could direct me to?

... You've shoplifted/not paid for something over $100 in value

I think my piracy attempts alone contribute to this easily. I have not paid for a single college textbook. I listen to many audiobooks and don't pay for them. I used to run a DC++ server in college to facilitate distribution of latest TV shows and movies and music and class notes. I also have not paid for any of the books i've read on my ipad this year...

You've fasted (i..e. not eaten, water is fine) continuously for two days

I don't really remember if it was fully 2 days but this happened around my attempt with Keto diet where before I started, I did a fast. But i don't think it was 2 days. More like 1 day and a few hrs.

you have had sex with a manifold user

yes, many times 😘

you think you're in the top .01% of people (in the developed world) by intelligence?

Not sure how to resolve this one. I'll look up some statistics and project them to developed world population. I've already resolved the MENSA one to YES, which has IQ>=132 on stanford-binet scale as the minimum apparently.

you have had sex with a manifold user / yes, many times 😘

Hm, should've said 'manifold user i'd recognize' or something. Your gf might just have a manifold account

You've accidentally walked in on someone engaging in naughty things

Not accidentally

You once spent a month desert village with average temperature of ~40 degrees Celsius (104 F) and survived on <$3 a day.

The constant dizziness like feeling, never looking up while walking because its too bright. Pouring water on head every 30 minutes to stay cool. Sprinkling water on mattress before laying on it every 30 and keeping wet towels on forehead. Eating stuff was hard because the heat made is hard to have an appetite. The constant hot air and sand and the overall "quietness" and "primitiveness" of the experience will forever remain unmatched.

You've ever considered suicide?

Yeah i have. A few times. But again, I consider many things and this is one thing i never felt the urge to take an action towards. Just had thoughts.

Are you above average attractiveness among people of your social class and age?

I think so. I believe I've asked <3 people out on a date but I've been on 40-50+ unique dates. Most of the time I'm the one who is approached and told by platonic female friends that I'm attractive.

You have watched youtube for >15 hrs in a single day

Not just once... not proud of this one.

You're a night owl

Always have been. I tried a few experiments such as one semester in college I woke up at 5 am daily and slept at 10pm. It was a productive time afair but i ended up defaulting back to staying up at night.

You are a vegetarian

I am, though I've tasted a few different chicken dishes one time each. But thats a one off.

You have gone at least once >48 hrs without sleeping

Multiple times. Due to having (very likely) delayed phase sleep disorder, I once experimented with a day structure of : 1 "newday" consists of 2 regular days. Instead of planning my day, I'd plan my "newday" and this was very productive for me in the short run but unsustainable ultimately.

You've designed and implemented your own (mahbe toy) programming language at some point

Designed and implemented - no.

You can hold your breath underwater for MORE than 2 minutes (120 seconds)

I can. I've been a swimmer all my life and pretty much have been able to do this for as long as I can remember

Technically, I learned how to drive stick, so thats a YES but I don't really drive a car (and I don't own one).

Someone has accidentally walked in on you engaging in naughty things

Again, surprisingly no, considering all the adventures i've engaged in. No one has walked in, to my knowledge. As for someone hearing something, well, that's a different question.

You've volunteered for help in a hospital (Assisting some doctor, and such)

My partner is a doctor and I have assisted her before in a hospital

You like Zeus more than Poseidon (overall)

Lol, never.

You use a laptop more often than a workstation/PC setup

It's just way more comfortable.

You love Greek Mythology

Love it

You like MCU

Marvel Cinematic Universe? No, not really. I did watch and enjoy some parts of the Iron man movie 1 and 2 but none of the avengers stuff was enjoyable, nor was Doctor Strange.

You have more than 12 stuffed animals

No, only like 3 (all on my bed)

Your hair are long enough to rest on your shoulders

Have been for the last 2-3 years. Sometimes like Haaland's long hair, sometimes Keanu Reeves style, sometimes Joaquin Pheonix etc

You've broken a bone

Thankfully no

You've been to a nightclub

Surprisingly no

You've once done an isolation experiment and went without human contact of any form (talking, looking etc) for >=3 days

I dont recommend this for most people but there's someone out there who will learn a lot from this kind of thing.

You've forgotten to pay a credit card bill on time

Just once, last month. I had made a single <$5 purchase on it at the start of the month and forgot about it.

You've crossed a road without looking either left or right

And I felt like an absolute madman too.

That's only a 135. FUH easily beats that. People keep arguing that the average Manifolder is a 125 ( /levifinkelstein/whats-the-average-iq-of-active-mani ) , which is 95%, and they barely know how to read.

You've walked a 100,000 steps in a single day (midnight to midnight) prior to resolving this option.

This option scares me. 😭

Alright, logging off xD

Will resolve in a few hrs.

(note: I asked in private before submitting some of the more serious ones)

I think time scale matters for this

Edit: and the cause, and what doom is defined as in this scenario

@jacksonpolack i can't answer the p(doom) questions without knowing what you mean by doom and what is the time scale (are we talking years, decades, centuries, petaseconds, etc

I'm not sure, tbh, I just asked it because it's a common question. 10k years, and AI doom.

but non-AI doom would be interesting too!

You think your AI interpretability work will contribute, in a maybe small but non-infinimestial way, to AI alignment

And ignore substitution effects like 'I'm discovering an important piece of math but someone else would discover it a month later if it weren't for me'

Hmmm what if that friend had an extreme political belief and I think they're silly for having that belief, but if they knew that i thought that, they'd be offended.

I don't think that should count

@jacksonpolack Got it!